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第1章 一个关于两类人的故事
1. Michael Lewis, Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game (New York:Norton, 2004).
第2章 为我讲个故事
1. Paul Zak, “Why Your Brain Loves Good Storytelling,” Harvard Business Review,October 28, 2014.
2. Greg Stephens, Lauren Silbert, and Uri Hasson, “Speaker–Listener NeuroCoupling Underlies Successful Communication,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Scientists USA 107, no. 32 (2010): 14425–14430.
3. Peter Guber, Tell to Win (New York: Crown Business, 2011).
4. Melanie Green and Tim Brock, Persuasion: Psychological Insights and Perspectives,2nd ed. (Thousand Oaks, Calif.: Sage, 2005).
5. Arthur C. Graesser, Murray Singer, and Tom Trabasso, “Constructing Inferences During Narrative Text Comprehension,” Psychological Review 101 (1994):371–395.
6. D. M. Wegner and A. F. Ward, “The Internet Has Become the External Hard Drive for Our Memories,” Scientific American 309, no. 6 (2013), 58–61.
7. John Huth, “Losing Our Way in the World,” New York Times, July 20, 2013.
8. Daniel Kahnemann, Thinking, Fast and Slow (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2011).
9. Tyler Cowen, “Be Suspicious of Stories,” TEDxMidAtlantic, 16:32, November 2009,www.ted.com/talks/tyler_cowen_be_suspicious_of_stories.
10. Jonathan Gotschall, “Why Storytelling Is the Ultimate Weapon,” Fast Company,2012. http://www.fastcocreate.com/1680581/why–storytelling–is–the–ultimate–weapon.
11. J. Shaw and S. Porter, “Constructing Rich False Memories of Committing Crime,” Psychological Science 26 (March 2015): 291–301.
12. Elizabeth F. Loftus and Jacqueline E. Pickrell, “The Formation of False Memories,” Psychiatric Annals 25, no. 12 (December 1995): 720–725.
13. Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Delusions and the Madness of Crowds (reprint edition; CreateSpace October 22, 2013).
14. John Carreyrou, “Hot Startup Theranos Has Struggled with Its Blood–Test Technology,” Wall Street Journal, October 16, 2015, www.wsj.com/articles/theranos–has–struggled–with–blood–tests–1444881901.
15. Caitlin Roper, “This Woman Invented a Way to Run 30 Lab Tests on Only One Drop of Blood,” Wired, February 18, 2014, www.wired.com/2014/02/elizabeth–holmes–theranos.
第3章 讲故事的要素
1. Aristotle’s Poetics is the earliest surviving work of dramatic theory and dates back to before 300 b.c.e.
2. Freytag explained his dramatic structure in Die Technik des Dramas (Leipzig: S. Herzel, 1863). That structure was renamed “Freytag’s pyramid.”
3. Joseph Campbell, The Hero with a Thousand Faces (Novato, Calif.: New World Library, 1949).
4. The original version of the story has seventeen phases to it. The simplified version, which was created by Christopher Vogler for Disney Studios, has only twelve, but the core of the story is retained.
5. C. Booker, The Seven Basic Plots: Why We Tell Stories (London: Bloomsbury Academic, 2006).
第4章 数字的力量
1. Michael Lewis, Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game (New York: Norton, 2004).
2. Ibid., xiv.
3. I am using two standard errors to get an interval that I feel confident captures the outcome 95 percent of the time. With a 67 percent confidence interval, themistake could be 2.30 percent in either direction, yielding a range of 3.88 percent to 8.48 percent.
第5章 数字处理工具
1. See Nassim Taleb’s work, either in his books and articles or on his website, fooledbyrandomness.com, for his trenchant critique of the use and abuse of the normal distribution in financial modeling.
第6章 构建一个故事
1. Sergio Marchionne’s presentation can be found at www.autonews.com/Assets /pdf/presentations/SM_Fire_investor_presentation.pdf.
2. Aswath Damodaran, The Dark Side of Valuation (Upper Saddle River, N.J.: Prentice Hall/FT Press, 2009).
第7章 故事试讲
1. Benjamin Graham and David L. Dodd, Security Analysis, 6th edition (New York:McGraw–Hill, 2009).
第10章 完善和修改故事——反馈回路
1. Bill Gurley, “How to Miss By a Mile: An Alternative Look at Uber’s Potential Market Size,” Above the Crowd (blog), July 11, 2014, http://abovethecrowd.com/2014/07/11 /how–to–miss–by–a–mile–an–alternative–look–at–ubers–potential–market–size.
2. Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2011).
第13章 从“大视角”进行研究——宏观故事
1. I used thirty years of historical data on oil prices, adjusted for inflation, to create an empirical distribution. I then chose the statistical distribution that seemed to provide the closest fit (lognormal) and parameter values that yielded numbers closest to the historical data.
第15章 管理上的挑战
1. You can read Bezos’s 1997 letter to Amazon shareholders on the SEC website at: www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000119312513151836/d511111dex991.htm. After almost two decades, the Amazon story remains almost unchanged at its core.
2. Noam Wasserman, “The Founder’s Dilemma,” Harvard Business Review 86, no. 2 (February 2008): 102–109.
3. Kleiner, Perkins, Caufield & Byers looked at 895 young companies that had IPOs or were acquired between 1994 and 2014 and classified them based on whether one of the founders was a CEO at the time of the exit or not.