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第一章 风险：是什么，出现在哪些非常规之处
性工作者被谋杀：D. D. Brewer et al., “Extent, Trends, and Perpetrators of Prostitution- Related Homicide in the United States,”Journal of Forensic Sciences 51,no. 5 (September 2006): 1101– 8.
经济上成功的希望：Rolf Skjong,“Etymology of Risk: Classical Greek Origin—Nautical Expression — Metaphor for ‘Difficulty to Avoid in the Sea,’” February 25,2005, http://research.dnv.com/skj/Papers/ETYMOLOGY-OF-RISK.pdf.
为期四年的性交易数据：数据由一位研究者从互联网上抓取。他大方地分享了数据，但希望匿名。
与皮条客合作的妓女: Steven Levitt and Sudhir Venkatesh, “An Empirical Analysis of Street-Level Prostitution,” unpublished manuscript, 2007, http://international.uclaedu/institute/article/85677.
经济学家的估计：Paul Gertier, Manisha Shah, and Stefano M. Bertozzi, “Risky Business: The Market for Unprotected Commercial Sex,” Journal of Political Economy 113, no. 3 (June 2005): 518–50.
预估及不确定性：Frank Knight, Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit (Boston: Houghton Mifflin Co., 1921).
第二章 回报：明确你想要什么才能得到什么
低卡路里的替代品：来自2016年和2017年对科尔的采访。
第四章 好莱坞对确定性的追求永无止境
精妙的Excel表格：Chris Jones, “Ryan Kavanaugh Uses Math to Make Movies,”Es-quire, November 19, 2009. https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a6641/ryan-kavanaugh-1209/.
进行这项投资：Connie Bruck, “Cashier du Cinema,” New Yorker, October 8, 2012,https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2012/10/08/cashier-du-cinema.
无法评估：Peter Bernstein, Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk (Hoboken,NJ: John Wiley & Sons, 1996).
符合这种分布：Eugene Fama, “The Behavior of Stock- Market Prices,” Journal ofBusiness 38, no. 1 (January 1965): 34 – 105.
所有发行的电影：数据来自Nash Information Services, http://nashinfoservices.com/.
完全相同的形状：Arthur De Vany and W. David Walls, “Uncertainty in the Movie Industry: Does Star Power Reduce the Terror of the Box Office?,” Journal of CulturalEconomics 23, no. 4 (November 1999): 285– 318.
恐怖片平均成本：根据Nash Information Services的数据进行了估计。
好莱坞的“圣杯”Alex Ben Block, “Ryan Kavanaugh’s Secret to Success,” Hollywood Reporter, September 29, 2010, https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/ryan-kavanaughs-secret-success-28540.
13%~18%：Tatiana Siegal, “Gun Hill Slate a Sound Investment,” Variety, October 14, 2007, https://variety.com/2007/film/markets-festivals/gun-hill-slate-a-soundinvestment-1117974039/.
美国票房只有539 000美元：Benjamin Wallace, “The Epic Fail of Hollywood’s Hottest Algorithm,” New York Magazine, January 25, 2016, http://www.vulture.com/2016/01/relativity-media-ryan-kavanaugh-c-v-r.html.
记者本·弗里茨：Ben Fritz, The Big Picture: The Fight for the Future of Movies (New York: Houghton Mifflin, 2018).
总监戴维·沙欣：对沙欣及其摩根大通团队的采访。
第五章 风险的类型：狗仔队不为人知的生活
经济学家威廉·夏普和约翰·林特纳：William F. Sharpe, “Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions of Risk,” Journal of Finance 19, no. 3(September 1964): 425– 42.
衡量了美国人的收入趋势：Fatih Guvenen, Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, Jae Song, and Motohiro Yogo, “Worker Betas: Five Facts About Systematic Earnings Risk,” AmericanEconomic Review 107, no. 5 (May 2017): 398– 403.
就业市场紧张：Craig Copeland,“Employee Tenure Trends: 1983– 2016,” Employee Benefit Research Institute Notes 38, no. 9 (September 20, 2017), https://www.ebri.org/publications/notes/index.cfm?fa=notesDisp&content_id=3497.
第六章 展望理论：回归理性
飙升的收视率：Phil Hellmuth, Poker Brat: Phil Hellmuth’s Autobiography (East Sussex, England: D& B Publishing, 2017), 248.
理查德·塞勒和埃里克·约翰逊：Richard Thaler and Eric Johnson, “Gambling with the House Money and Trying to Break Even: The Effects of Prior Outcomes on Risky Choice,” Man-agement Science 36, no. 6 (June 1990): 643– 60.
波莫纳学院的经济学家：Gary Smith, Michael Levere, and Robert Kurtzman, “Poker Player Behavior After Big Wins and Big Losses,” Management Science 55, no. 9(September 2009): 1547– 55.
后来的研究：David Eil and Jaimie W. Lien, “Staying Ahead and Getting Even: Risk Attitudes of Experienced Poker Players,” Games and Economic Behavior 87 (September 2014): 50– 69.
早上赚钱：Joshua D. Coval and Tyler Shumway, “Do Behavioral Biases Affect Prices?” Journal of Finance 60, no. 1 (February 2005): 1– 34.
相比输家：Nicholas Barberis and Wei Xiong, “What Drives the Disposition Effect? An Analysis of a Long- Standing Preference- Based Explanation,” Journal of Finance 64, no.2 (April 2009): 751– 84, July 2006.
规避损失：John List, “Does Market Experience Eliminate Market Anomalies?,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 118, no. 1 (February 2003): 41– 71.
第七章 风险的错误认识：心存侥幸
大约有700万美元：Barry Meier, “Crazy Eddie’s Insane Odyssey,”New York Times,July 19, 1992, https://www.nytimes.com/1992/07/19/business/crazy-eddie-s-insane-odyssey.html.
6 000多万美元：Meier.
实际亏损了数百万：Meier.
多报了6 500万美元：Stephen Labaton, “S.E.C. Files Fraud Case on Retailer,” NewYork Times, September 7, 1989, https://www.nytimes.com/1989/09/07/business/sec-files-fraud-case-on-retailer.html.
交通死亡人数额外增加了1 600人：Gerd Gigerenzer, “Dread Risk, September 11,and Fatal Traffic Accidents,” Psychological Science 15, no. 4 (April 2004): 286– 87.
社会学家调查了1 354名青少年：Thomas A. Loughran, Greg Pogarsky, Alex R.
Piquero, and Raymond Paternoster, “Re-examining the Functional Form of the Certainty Effect in Deterrence Theory,” Justice Quarterly 29, no. 5 (2012): 712– 41.
权力的实施：Paul Slovic, “Trust, Emotion, Sex, Politics, and Science: Surveying the Risk- Assessment Battlefield,” Risk Analysis 19, no. 4 (August 1999): 689– 701.
阻止太多犯罪：Justin McCrary and Aaron Chalfin, “Criminal Deterrence: A Reviewof the Literature,” Journal of Economic Literature 55, no. 1 (March 2017): 5– 48.
有效的犯罪威慑：Jonathan Klick and Alexander T. Tabarrok, “Using Terror Alert Levels to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime,” Journal of Law and Economics 48, no.1 (April 2005): 267– 79.
同样有效：Brendan O’Flaherty, The Economics of Race in the United States(Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2015), 362– 66.
第三代避孕药：Gerd Gigerenzer, “Making Sense of Health Statistics,” Bulletin ofthe World Health Organization 87, no. 8 (August 2009): 567.
人们可能并不理解概率：Gerd Gigerenzer, Reckoning with Risk: Learning to Live with Uncertainty (New York: Penguin Books, 2002).
第八章 多样化：在所有错误的地方寻找效率
赛场收入：Jill Stowe and Emily Plant, “Is Moneyball Relevant on the Racetrack? A New Approach to Evaluating Future Racehorses,” Journal of Sports Economics, http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1527002518777977.
两万匹纯种小马驹：Jockey Club Foal Crop 2018n, http://www.jockeyclub.com/default.asp?section=FB&area=2.
由血统决定：Devie Poerwanto and Jill Stowe,“The Relationship Between Sire Representation and Average Yearling Prices in the Thoroughbred Industry,” Journal of Agribusiness 28, no. 1 (Spring 2010): 61– 74.
马的“速度基因”：E. W. Hill, J. Gu, S. S. Eivers, R. G. Fonseca, B. A. McGivney, P. Govindarajan, et al. “A Sequence Polymorphism in MSTN Predicts Sprinting Ability and Racing Stamina in Thoroughbred Horses,” PLoS ONE 5, no. 1 (January 2010):e8645.
过去40年：M. M. Binns et al., “Inbreeding in the Thoroughbred Horse,” AnimalGenetics 43, no. 3 (June 2012): 340– 42.
纯种马其近亲繁殖程度：来自对宾斯的采访。
配种费是50万美元：Terry Conway, “Northern Dancer: The Patriarch Stallion,”America’s Best Racing, September 18, 2017, www.americasbestracing.net/thesport/2017-northern-dancer-the-patriarch-stallion.
“北方舞者”基因出现的比例：来自大卫·丁克的一份未发表的研究。
“北方舞者”的冲刺基因：Mim A. Bower et al., “The Genetic Origin and History of Speed in the Thoroughbred Racehorse,” Nature Communications 3 (2012): article number 643.
比赛中的成绩保持平稳：Patrick Sharman and Alastair J. Wilson, “Racehorses Are Getting Faster,” Biology Letters 11, no. 6 (June 2015): 1– 5.
遗传创新更少：Mark W. Denny, “Limits to Running Speed in Dogs, Horses and Humans,” Journal of Experimental Biology 211 (December 2008): 3836– 49.
现在差不多是一半：根据Federal Reserve Board’s 2016 Survey of Consumer Finances中的数据做出的估计，https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/scfindex.htm.
关注回报，也要关注风险：Peter Bernstein, Capital Ideas: The Improbable Origins of Modern Wall Street (Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, 2005), 57.
风险和费用：Eugene Fama and Kenneth French, “Luck Versus Skill in the CrossSection of Mutual Fund Returns,” Journal of Finance 65, no. 5 (October 2010): 1915– 47.
像“军火贩”这样的竞赛获胜者：来自对兰伯特博士的采访。
更聪明的育种选择：基于对罗杰斯的采访。
遗传学有能力：基于对希尔的采访。
第九章 消除风险：对冲的艺术
中西部公司高管：Tony Munoz, “Arnold Donald, President & CEO, Carnival Corporation & plc,” Maritime Executive, January/ February 2017, https://www.maritime-executive.com/magazine/arnold-donald-president-ceo-carnival-corporation-plc.
销售额来衡量：“Arnold Donald:‘It Stopped Working Because the World Changed,’” Financial Times, January 8, 2017, https://www.ft.com/content/3201e790-9abd-11e6-b8c6-568a43813464.
担任董事长直到2005年：Heather Cole,“Arnold Donald’s Sweet Deal,”St. LouisBusiness Journal, May 13, 2004, https://www.bizjournals.com/stlouis/stories/2004/05/17/story1.html.
孟山都的同事都很吃惊：Ram, “Arnold Donald.”
绝对转变：Jon Pareles, “David Bowie, 21st Century Entrepreneur,”New York Times,June 9, 2002.
鲍威很快发问：来自对普尔曼的采访。
迪士尼的约翰·帕吉特：Chabeli Herrera, “How Carnival Revolutionized Its Guest Experience with Super-Smart Tech,”Miami Herald, January 8, 2017, www.miamiherald.com/news/business/tourism-cruises/article125317259.html.
和他的团队：Allison Schrager, “Can Carnival Possibly Make a Cruise with Thousands of Passengers Feel Personable?” Quartz, April 18, 2018, https://qz.com/1194838/carnival-ocean-medallion-a-disney-magicband-for-cruises/.
第十章 保险：引入股票期权
费希尔·布莱克和迈伦·斯科尔斯：Fischer Black, Myron Scholes, “The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities,” Journal of Political Economy 81, no. 3 (May/ June 1973): 637–54.
期权价格：Robert Merton, “Theory of Rational Option Pricing,” Bell Journal ofEconomics and Management Science 4, no. 1 (Spring 1973): 141–83.
20 000个合约：见“A Brief History of Options,” Ally Invest Options Playbook, www. optionsplaybook.com/options-introduction/stock-option-history.
400万期权合约：Chicago Board Options Exchange, Annual Market Statistics, http://www.cboe.com/data/historical-options-data/annual-market-statistics.
预防了更多的犯罪：Michael Mueller-Smith, “The Criminal and Labor Market Impacts of Incarceration” (unpublished working paper, 2015), https://sites.lsa.umich.edu/mgms/wp-content/uploads/sites/283/2015/09/incar.pdf.
第十一章 道德风险：带着保险去冲大浪
噩梦的形式：Greg Long, “Greg Long Recounts Almost Drowning,” Surfing Maga zine,October 1, 2014, https://www.surfer.com/surfing-magazine-archive/surfing-video/greg-long-drowning/.
默顿使金融市场中广泛使用期权：来自与基乌拉纳的采访中了解的家族历史，以及将摩托艇作为安全建议的发现。
经济学家萨姆·佩尔兹曼：Sam Peltzman, “The Effects of Automobile Safety Regulation,” Journal of Political Economy 83, no. 4 (August 1975): 677–726.
1997年略低于20%：The President’s Working Group on Financial Markets, “Hedge Funds, Leverage, and the Lessons of Long-Term Capital Management,” April 1999,https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/fin-mkts/Documents/hedgfund.pdf.
为新科技进行融资：William N. Goetzmann, Money Changes Everything: How Finance Made Civilization Possible (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2017).
趋势发生逆转：National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, “Summary of MotorVehicle Crashes,” August 2018, DOT HS 812 580.
奈特氏不确定性：Frank Knight, Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit (Boston: Houghton Mifflin Co., 1921).
规则5：不确定性无处不在
奈特氏不确定性：Frank Knight, Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit (Boston: HoughtonMifflin Co., 1921).
第十二章 不确定性：战争迷雾
制服和靴子：H. R. McMaster, “Battle of 73 Easting” (manuscript available at the Donovan Research Library, Fort Benning, GA): 8, www.benning.army.mil/library/ content/Virtual/Donovanpapers/other/73Easting.pdf.
和我们练习的完全一致：McMaster, 12–13.
直到所有敌人被摧毁或者投降：McMaster, 20–21.
麦克马斯特告诉我：来自对麦克马斯特的采访。
“战争迷雾”：Peter Grier, “Preparing for 21st Century Information War,” GovernmentExecutive 8, no. 27 (August 1995): 130. Williamson Murray, “Clausewitz Out, Computer In: Military Culture and Technological Hubris,” National Interest, June 1, 1997, https:// www.clausewitz.com/readings/Clause& Computers.htm.
最小化下跌风险：Colonel Arthur F. Lykke Jr., “Defining Military Strategy,” Military Review 69, no. 5 (May 1989): 2– 8.
克劳塞维茨指出了几个要素：Carl von Clausewitz, On War, ed. and trans. Michael Howard and Peter Paret (1976; repr., Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1989).
“上次冲突”：Williamson Murray, “Thinking About Innovation,”Naval WarCollege Review 54, no. 2 (Spring 2001): 122– 23.
“笨重的英国人”：Meir Finkel,On Flexibility: Recovery from Technological and Doctrinal Surprise on the Battlefield (Stanford, CA: Stanford Security Studies, 2011), 206.
“最初的意外”：Finkel, 2. 斜体为原文所加。
这些原则：Finkel, 1– 17.Town，” New York Times，September 22，1949，28，https://timesmachine.nytimes.