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开场白 拍卖让世界更美好
1.Mason Gaffney,Warm Memories of Bill Vickrey(1996),http://www.wealthandwant.com/auth/Vickrey.html.加夫尼认为是上帝给了他回复:“比尔,我们在这儿一直是这样做的;但是谢谢你敦促伙计们来把我的意愿在人间实行,就像我们在天堂中实行一样。”
2.Juan Camilo Castillo,Daniel T.Knoepfle,&E.Glen Weyl,Surge Pricing Solves the Wild Goose Chase(2017),https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/ECabstract.pdf.
3.Janny Scott,After Three Days in the Spotlight,Nobel Prize Winner Is Dead,New York Times,October 12,1996.
序言 自由市场的困境
1.Francis Fukuyama,The End of History and the Last Man(Free Press,1992).
2.Marion Fourcade-Gourinchas&Sarah L.Babb,The Rebirth of the Liberal Creed:Paths to Neoliberalism in Four Countries,108 American Journal of Sociology 533(2002);Fourcade et al.,The Superiority of Economists,29 Journal of Economic Perspectives 89(2015).
3.Marion Fourcade,Economists and Societies:Discipline and Profession in the United States,Britain,and France,1890s to 1990s(Princeton University Press,2010).
4.Thomas Piketty,Emmanuel Saez,and Gabriel Zucman,Distributional National Accounts:Methods and Estimates for the United States,Quarterly Journal of Economics(Forthcoming).
5.Thomas Piketty&Gabriel Zucman,Capital Is Back:Wealth-Income Ratios in Rich Countries 1700–2010,129 Quarterly Journal of Economics 1255(2014).
6.Council of Economic Advisers,Benefits of Competition and Indicators of Market Power(April 2016),https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/page/files/20160414_cea_competition_issue_brief.pdf;The Economist,In the Shadow of Giants(February 17,2011),http://www.economist.com/node/18182262.
7.Simcha Barkai,Declining Labor and Capital Shares(2017),http://home.uchicago.edu/~barkai/doc/BarkaiDecliningLaborCapital.pdf.
8.Jan de Loecker&Jan Eeckhout,The Rise of Market Power and Macroeconomic Implications(2017),http://www.janeeckhout.com/wp-content/uploads/RMP.pdf.
9.Chad Syverson,Challenges to Mismeasurement Explanations for the US Productivity Slowdown,34,Journal of Economic Perspectives 165(2017).
10.OECD,The Future of Productivity(2015),https://www.oecd.org/eco/OECD-2015-The-futureof-productivity-book.pdf.
11.Christine Lagarde,Reinvigorating Productivity Growth(April 3,2017),https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2017/04/03/sp040317-reinvigorating-productivity-growth.
12.Stephen Nickell,Luca Nunziata,&Wolfgang Ochel,Unemployment in the OECD since the 1960s.What Do We Know?,115 Economic Journal 1(2005).
13.Chad Syverson,What Determines Productivity?,49 Journal of Economic Literature 326(2011).
14.Chang-TaiHsieh&Peter J.Klenow,Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China and India,124 Quarterly Journal of Economics 1403(2009).
15.Raj Chetty et al.,The Fading American Dream:Trends in Absolute Income Mobility Since 1940(April 24,2017),http://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2017/04/21/science.aal4617/tab-pdf.
16.以边缘富裕国家希腊为例,极左翼联盟(Syriza)发动左派民粹运动并在2015年希腊金融危机时上台,但接下来他们的政策有所暖和。
17.Zachary Crockett,Donald Trump Is the Only US President Ever with No Political or Military Experience(updated January 23,201 7),https://www.vox.com/policy-andpolitics/2016/11/11/13587532/donald-trump-no-experience.
18.Matt Golder,Far Right Parties in Europe,19 Annual Review of Political Science 477(2016);Katherine Cramer Walsh,Putting Inequality in Its Place:Rural Consciousness and the Power of Perspective,106 American Political Science Review 517(2013);David Autor,David Dorn,Gordon Hanson,&Kaveh Majlesi,A Note on the Effect of Rising Trade Exposure on the 2016 Presidential Election(2017),https://gps.ucsd.edu/_files/faculty/hanson/hanson_research_TrumpVote-032017.pdf.
19.Matthew Gentzkow,Jesse M.Shapiro,&Matt Taddy,Measuring Polarization in HighDimensional Data:Method and Application to Congressional Speech(National Bureau of Economic Research,Working Paper No.22423,2016);David Autor,David Dorn,Gordon Hanson,&Kaveh Majlesi,Importing Political Polarization?The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure(National Bureau of Economic Research,Working Paper No.22637,2016).
20.例如,在2016年美国选举结束后,由美国公共宗教研究所和《大西洋月刊》进行的民意调查显示,1/3的特朗普的选民称他的当选是“阻止美国衰落的最后机会”,https://www.prri.org/research/prri-atlantic-poll-post-election-white-working-class/,Ashcroft勋爵的一项民意调查发现,英国“脱欧”人士认为,英国的生活水平比30年前降低了16个百分点,而在英国,那些赞成“保持”的人有着相反的看法,他们认为提高了46个百分点,http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-theunited-kingdom-voted-and-why/.
21.Arlie Hochshild,Strangers in Their Own Land:Anger and Mourning on the American Right(New Press,2016).
22.Adam Smith,The Wealth of Nations,Part I,56(Collier,1902).
23.我们描绘的特征和1893年著名的社会学家埃米尔·涂尔干(Émile Durkheim)的作品The Division of Labour in Society紧密相连(Simon&Schuster,1997)。
24.参见Michael J.Sandel,What Money Can’t Buy:The Moral Limits of Markets(Farrar,Straus and Giroux,2012);Samuel Bowles,The Moral Economy:Why Good Incentives Are No Substitute for Good Citizens(Yale University Press,2016)对于当代经济的辩护。
25.John Stuart Mill,On Liberty(John W.Parker and Sons,1859).
26.Adam Smith,Theory of Moral Sentiments,296(Wells and Lilly,1817)(emphasis added).
27.Smith,Wealth of Nations,137.
28.尽管这种观点被大多数与政策制定者打交道的应用经济学家所接受,往往远离实际政策讨论的经济理论家仍对这种观点持怀疑态度。参见For a discussion,see Anthony B.Atkinson,The Mirrlees Review and the State of Public Economics,50 Journal of Economic Literature 770(2012).
29.Joan Robinson,The Economics of Imperfect Competition(Palgrave Macmillan,1932).
30.William Cronon,Nature’s Metropolis:Chicago and the Great West(W.W.Norton,1992).
第1章 产权共享
1.Hyperloop Tests Magnetic Levitation at 192 mph,NPR Morning Edition,August 4,2017,http://www.npr.org/2017/08/04/541538743/hyperloop-tests-magnetic-levitation-at-192-mph.
2.William J.Bernstein,A Splendid Exchange(Grove Press,2008).
3.Robert C.Allen,Engels’Pause:Technical Change,Capital Accumulation,and Inequality in the British Industrial Revolution,46 Explorations in Economic History 418(2009).
4.Henry George,Progress and Poverty 1–5(Robert Schalkenbach Foundation,1997).
5.Alexander Gray,The Socialist Tradition:Moses to Lenin(Longmans,Green,1947).
6.Philip T.Hoffman,Institutions and Agriculture in Old Regime France,16 Policy&Society 241(1988).
7.这个数字来自于经济学家查德·西弗森(Chad Syverson),他发现当资源被不当分配至生产率低的公司时,产出每年减少25%。见Chad Syverson,Market Structure and Productivity:A Concrete Example,112 Journal of Political Economy 1181(2004);Syverson,Product Substitutability and Productivity Dispersion,86 Review of Economics and Statistics 534(2004);Syverson,What Determines Productivity,49 Journal of Economic Literature 326(2011)。在垄断问题最简单的形式中,并非所有的配置不当都是由于垄断引起的。然而,正如我们在下面所讨论的,许多其他问题都将导致配置不当(逆向选择、禀赋效应和信用约束),它们也可以通过部分公有制来解决。因此,我们认为,这一配置不当的大部分问题可以通过COST和相关改革来解决。
8.Michael Kremer,The O-Ring Theory of Economic Development,108 Quarterly Journal of Economics 551(1993),提供了一个关于大型企业如何克服垄断问题的明确阐述。
9.R.H.Coase,The Nature of the Firm,4 Economica 386(1937).
10.W.Stanley Jevons,The Theory of Political Economy xlvi(Macmillan and Company,5th ed.,1957).
11.Léon Walras,Studies in Social Economics 224–225(Jan van Daal&Donald A.Walker,trans.,Routledge,2010).
12.“社会红利”这个词似乎是由这篇论文首创的:Oskar Lange,The Economic Theory of Socialism,4 Review of Economic Studies 1(1936),但他把这个概念归功于瓦尔拉斯。我们将会看到更多关于兰格的想法。
13.Walras,Studies in Social Economics,234.
14.George,Progress and Poverty,223.
15.George,Progress and Poverty,244.
16.http://landlordsgame.info/。
17.George R.Geiger,The Philosophy of Henry George.Introduction by John Dewey xxii(MacMillan Co.,1933).
18.Garrett Hardin,The Tragedy of the Commons,162 Science 1243(1968).
19.Harold Schiffrin,Sun Yat-sen’s Early Land Policy:The Origin and Meaning of“Equalization of Land Rights,”16 Journal of Asian Studies 549,555(1957).
20.Joseph A.Schumpeter,Capitalism,Socialism and Democracy(Harper&Brothers,1942).
21.Oskar Lange&Fred M.Taylor,On the Economic Theory of Socialism(Benjamin E.Lippincott,ed.,1938);Abba P.Lerner,The Economics of Control:Principles of Welfare Economics(Macmillan,1944).
22.Ludwig von Mises,Economic Calculation in the Socialist Commonwealth(S.Alder trans.,Ludwig von Mises Institute,2012);Frederich A.Hayek,The Use of Knowledge in Society,35 American Economic Review 519(1945).也可参见Samuel Bowles,Microeconomics:Behavior,Institutions and Evolution 475–476(Princeton University Press,2006)对中世纪的辩论的讨论。我们在结语中会回到这些辩论。
23.这些批评最终将导致现代社会主义思想家提倡各种混合的经济关系,如工人合作社,使得生产过程在更强的民主控制之下,同时被赋予更强的经济权利,这也减少了工人对雇主的依赖。参见Samuel Bowles&Herbert Gintis,Democracy and Capitalism:Property,Community,and the Contradictions of Modern Social Thought(Basic Books,1986);Alec Nove,The Economics of Feasible Socialism Revisited(Routledge,2d ed.,1991)。
24.Friedrich Hayek,The Road to Serfdom(Routledge,1944).
25.一些有限的实证研究证实了律师的直觉,即这种讨价还价是非常困难的,尤其是在科斯喜欢的一些例子中。参见Hoyt Bleakley&Joseph Ferrie,Land Openings on the Georgia Frontier and the Coase Theorem in the Short and Long-Run(2014),http://wwwpersonal.umich.edu/~hoytb/Bleakley_Ferrie_Farmsize.pdf以及Ward Farnsworth,Do Parties to Nuisance Cases Bargain after Judgment?A Glimpse Inside the Cathedral,66 University of Chicago Law Review 373(1999)。即使在竞争激烈的环境中,经济证据也证实了这些发现。参见Bradley Larsen,The Efficiency of Real World Bargaining:Evidence from Wholesale Used-Auto Auctions,NBER Working Paper 20431(2014)。
26.科斯最初想要证明的是,对看起来造成问题的人(这里是音乐老师)进行监管并不总是最好的;让双方达成协议可能更合理。
27.这可以在法律和经济学的三本主要教科书中看到。这三本书都给予投资问题很高的权重,以此把它作为对私有产权的辩护:如果私有产权不存在,那么人们就不会在改善财产上做投资,因为他们不能确定他们会从投资的回报中获利。参见Steven Shavell,Foundations of Economic Analysis of Law 11–19(Harvard University Press,2004);Robert Cooter&Thomas Ulen,Law&Economics 76–80(Pearson,6th ed.,2012);Richard A.Posner,Economic Analysis of Law 40–42(Aspen Publishers,9th ed.,2014)。这些教科书附带提及了垄断问题。虽然他们承认,坚持高价的问题以及相关问题的策略行为会妨碍财产的转让,但他们在很大程度上认为,这些问题仅限于财产的使用影响很多人的情况,比如工厂污染。
28.Benjamin Edelman,Michael Ostrovsky,&Michael Schwarz,Internet Advertising and the Generalized Second-Price Auction:Selling Billions of Dollars’Worth of Keywords,97 American Economic Review 242(2007);Hal R.Varian,Position Auctions,25 International Journal of Industrial Organization 1163(2007).
29.R.H.Coase,The Federal Communications Commission,2 Journal of Law and Economics 1(1959);Thomas W.Hazlett,Assigning Property Rights to Radio Spectrum Users:Why Did FCC License Auctions Take 67 Years?,41 Journal of Law and Economics 1(1959).
30.Paul Milgrom,Putting Auction Theory to Work,108 Journal of Political Economy 245(2000).
31.Roger B.Myerson&Mark Sattherwaite,Efficient Mechanisms for Bilateral Trading,29 Journal of Economic Theory 265(1983).
32.Peter Crampton,Robert Gibbons,&Paul Klemperer,Dissolving a Partnership Efficiently,55 Econometrica 61(1987);Ilya Segal&Michael D.Whinston,A Simple Status Quo that Ensures Participation(with Application to Efficient Bargaining),6 Theoretical Economics 109(2011).
33.人们可能会认为这是一件很自然的事情,如果这两个合作伙伴的股份与他们投入到项目工作中的比例是一致的,那么来接管公司的最佳合作伙伴人选,很有可能是在公司中付出了最大努力的人。但是,如果合伙人的股票不仅反映了他们的努力(“血汗产权”),还反映了金融投资(“现金权益”),或者对公司的承诺随着时间的推移而改变,那么情况可能就不一样了。
34.E.Glen Weyl&Anthony Lee Zhang,Depreciating Licenses(2017),https://ssrn.com/abstract=2744810.
35.Demosthenes,Against Phaenippus(c.BCE 359),讨论参见George C.Bitros&Anastasios D.Karayiannis,Creative Crisis in Democracy and Economy 20(Springer,2013).
36.Christopher D.Hall,Market Enforced Information Asymmetry:A Study of Claiming Races,44 Economic Inquiry 271(1986).
37.Antonio Cabrales,Antoni Calvó-Armengol,&Matthew O.Jackson,La Crema:A Case Study of Mutual Fire Insurance,111 Journal of Political Economy 425(2003).
38.Emerson Niou&Guofu Tan,An Analysis of Dr.SunYat-sen’s Self-Assessment Scheme for Land Taxation,78 Public Choice 103(1994).
39.Yun-Chien Chang,Self-Assessment of Takings Compensation:An Empirical Study,28 Journal of Law,Economics,and Organizations 265(2012).
40.Arnold C.Harberger,Issues of Tax Reform for Latin America,in Fiscal Policy for Economic Growth in Latin America(Johns Hopkins University Press,1965).
41.Maurice Allais,L’Impôtsur le Capital et la Réforme Monétaire(Hermann,1988).法学教授索尔·莱弗莫尔(Saul Levmore)使这篇论文引起了学术界的兴趣。Saul Levmore,Self-Assessed Valuation Systems for Tort and Other Law,68 Virginia Law Review 771(1982).
42.这一事实有助于减轻对COST的两种潜在的反对意见:所有者可能希望“破坏”他们的商品对其他人的吸引力以避免对方拿走商品;那些掠夺性的外来者可能恶意地拿走商品只是为了伤害所有者。注意,如果所有者总是把价格设定在他们愿意接受的最低价格之上,这两种情况都是不可能的,因为在这种情况下,所有者在他的财产被拿走时是高兴的——他仍然是盈利的,只是没有在他设定垄断价格的时候那么多。因此,“掠夺”将会像“掠夺者”一样受到欢迎,因为有人突然要挥霍一大笔钱买你的房子,所以你永远不会想要破坏你的财产,来减少这样一个特殊利好机会的概率。只有那些欺骗性地报告极低的价值并试图大肆破坏他们的商品的人,才容易受到掠夺行为的攻击,但他们这样的人可能在太多破坏形成之前,就已经被其他人抓住了。
43.Weyl&Zhang,Depreciating Licenses.
44.Thomas W.Merrill,Property and the Right to Exclude,77 Nebraska Law Review 730(1998).
45.当然,这也适用于普通的房产税,以及许多其他对私人财产使用的法律限制。
46.为了让我们的描述生动起来,我们讨论了一些个人财产的例子,比如房屋和汽车,但是读者应该记住,大多数的资产是由企业拥有的,因此大部分参与COST及从中得到收益的过程都是通过商业资产来实现的。
47.更多的细节参见Eric A.Posner&E.Glen Weyl,Property Is Another Name for Monopoly,9 Journal of Legal Analysis 51(2017)。
48.注意,这将会为住房的再融资创造一个高流动性的市场。
49.由尼基尔·奈克(Nikhil Naik)领导的一组研究人员已经使用图像分析来对房地产进行自动评估,所以这个想法并不像乍听起来那么难以置信。
50.George A.Akerlof,The Market for“Lemons”:Quality,Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism,84 Quarterly Journal of Economics 488(1970);Michael Spence,Job Market Signaling,87 Quarterly Journal of Economics 355(1973).
51.Richard Thaler,Toward a Positive Theory of Consumer Choice,1 Journal of Economics,Behavior,and Organizations 39(1980).
52.John A.List,Neoclassical Theory versus Prospect Theory:Evidence from the Marketplace,72 Econometrica 615(2004);Coren L.Apicella,Eduardo M.Azevedo,Nicholas A.Christakis,&James H.Fowler,Evolutionary Origins of the Endowment Effect:Evidence from Hunter-Gatherers,104 American Economic Review 1793(2014).
53.如想回顾以债务为基础的经济的许多不良影响,特别是从宏观经济角度,请参见Atif Mian&Amir Sufi,House of Debt:How They(and You)Caused the Great Recession and How We Can Stop It from Happening Again(University of Chicago Press,2014)。
54.J.R.Hicks,Annual Survey of Economic Theory:The Theory of Monopoly,3 Econometrica 1,8(1935).
55.Weyl&Zhang,Depreciating Licenses.
56.Chad Syverson,What Determines Productivity?49 Journal of Economic Literature 326(2011).
57.Milgrom,Putting Auction Theory to Work.
58.Paul Milgrom,E.Glen Weyl,&Anthony Lee Zhang,Redesigning Spectrum Licenses,40 Regulation(2017).
59.Jacqueline D.Lipton,Beyond Cybersquatting:Taking Domain Name Disputes Past Trademark Policy,40 Wake Forest Law Review 1361(2005).
60.Hope King,Owner of ClintonKaine.com wants$90,000,CNN Money(July 27,2016),http://money.cnn.com/2016/07/27/technology/clinton-kaine-website/index.html.
61.Lauren Cohen,Umit G.Gurun,&Scott Duke Kominers,The Growing Problem of Patent Trolling,352 Science 521(2016).
62.越来越多的人将这种全民退税额度称为“无条件基本收入”(universal basic income,UBI)。我们反对这种描述,因为UBI通常被描述为与一种体面生活的概念挂钩,我们认为这个概念是不明确的,而且在任何情况下,这都不是我们建议的目的。我们的社会红利将与一个国家的自评总财富,而不是一些基本需求的概念成比例。
63.David P.Hariton,Sorting Out the Tangle of Economic Substance,52 Tax Lawyer 235(1999);David A.Weisbach,Ten Truths about Tax Shelters(John M.Olin Program in Law and Economics Working Paper No.122,2001).
64.注意,名义本金不下降;对本金进行索赔的价值下降。
65.Piketty et al.,Distributional National Accounts.
66.Tyler Cowen,The Complacent Class:The Self-Defeating Quest for the American Dream(St.Martin’s Press,2017).
67.Leaf Van Boven and Thomas Gilovich,To Do or to Have?That Is the Question,85 Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 1193(2003).
68.最近的一些观点,比如Robert H.Frank,Choosing the Right Pond:Human Behavior and the Quest for Status(Oxford University Press,1987),and Juliet B.Schor,The Overspent America:Why We Want What We Don’t Need(Harper Perennial,1999)。
69.Saumitra Jha,Financial Asset Holdings and Political Attitudes:Evidence from Revolutionary England,130 Quarterly Journal of Economics 1485(2015);Markku Kaustia,Samuli Knüpfer,&Sami Torstila,Stock Ownership and Political Behavior:Evidence from Demutualizations,62 Management Science 945(2015).
70.Francis Fukuyama,Trust(Free Press,1995);Paola Sapienza,Anna Toldra-Simats,&Luigi Zingales,Understanding Trust,123 Economic Journal 1313(2013).
第2章 激进的制度设计
1.Mogens Herman Hansen,The Athenian Democracy in the Age of Demosthenes:Structure,Principles,and Ideology 6(J.A.Crook,trans.,Basil Blackwell,1999).
2.Xenophon,Hellenicabk.1,ch.7,§§1–35(Carlton Brownson trans.,1921)and Hansen,Athenian Democracy.
3.Andrew Lintott,The Constitution of the Roman Republic(Oxford University Press,1999).
4.Goronwy Edwards,Presidential Address,The Emergence of Majority Rule in the Procedure of the House of Commons,15 Transactions of the Royal Historical Society 165(1965).
5.John Gilbert Heinberg,Theories of Majority Rule,26 American Political Science Review 452,456(1932).
6.Melissa Schwartzberg,Counting the Many:The Origins and Limits of Supermajority Rule 52–58(Cambridge University Press,2013);Heinberg,Theories of Majority Rule,at 456.
7.Thomas Hobbes,Leviathan(Penguin Classics,1986)(originally published in 1651).
8.US Declaration of Independence,para.3(1776).
9.The Federalist No.51,at 323(James Madison)(Clinton Rossiter,ed.,1961).
10.US Constitution,article II,§2.
11.US Constitution,article I,§7.
12.US Constitution,article V.
13.Robert A.Dahl,How Democratic Is the American Constitution?12–18(Yale University Press,2d ed.,2003).
14.事实上,许多因这些法律受害的少数群体的支持者已经认识到这种司法干预的合法性的局限性,并呼吁在犯罪问题上给予直接受影响的人更大的发言权。William J.Stuntz,The Collapse of American Criminal Justice(Harvard University Press,2011),and Lisa L.Miller,The Perils of Federalism:Race,Poverty,and the Politics of Crime Control(Oxford University Press,2010).
15.西班牙数学家和哲学家雷蒙·鲁尔(Ramon Llull)在13世纪晚期就预想到了孔多塞的许多想法,但他的手稿在生前丢失了,直到新千年初期才被找回来,因此他对投票问题的后续发展有非常有限的影响。
16.Kenneth Arrow,Social Choice and Individual Values(Yale University Press,1970)(originally published in 1951).
17.举个例子,证人定理(Witness Theorem),在最近的一次经济学家组织的调查中被频繁地引用,他们询问一个理想的投票系统是否存在。参见IGM Forum,Primary Voting(March 7,2016),http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/primaryvoting。然而,这种观点有误导性。阿罗的理论也适用于市场配置,相反,市场的积极结果也适用于集体决策(QV的原因)。相对于私人物品市场而言,集体决策的失败更取决于现有制度的具体特征(我们将在下面讲述),而不是阿罗定理所涵盖的广泛可能性。
18.“Sur les assemblées provinciales”in Oeuvres de Condorcet,8:214–216,268–271,“Ésquisse”in Oeuvres de Condorcet,6:176–177.
19.Gary W.Cox,Making Votes Count:Strategic Coordination in the World’s Electoral Systems(Cambridge University Press,1997).
20.最著名的异常策略性投票是杜瓦杰定律(Duverger’s Law)。参见Maurice Duverger,Political Parties:Their Organization and Activity in Modern States(Wiley,1954)。
21.Richard J.Evans,The Coming of the Third Reich(Penguin,2004).
22.Ivan Ermakoff,Ruling Oneself Out:A Theory of Collective Abdications(Duke University Press,2008).
23.Richard D.McKelvey,Intransitivities in Multidimensional Voting Models and Some Implications for Agenda Control,12 Journal of Economic Theory 472(1976).of the publishers
24.Martin Niemöl ler,“First They Came”(c.1945),American Holocaust Memorial Museum,https://www.ushmm.org/wlc/en/article.php?ModuleId=10007392.
25.Él ie Harlévy,A History of the English People in the Nineteenth Century:The Triumph of Reform:1830–1841(E.I.Watkin,trans.,Barnes&Noble,1961).
26.Jeremy Bentham,Article on Utilitarianism,in The Collected Works of Jeremy Bentham:Deontology Together with a Table of the Springs of Action and Article on Utilitarianism(Amnon Goldworth ed.,Oxford University Press,1983;originally published in 1829).
27.John Stuart Mill,Considerations on Representative Government(Parker,Son,and Bourn,1861).
28.Paul A.Samuelson,The Pure Theory of Public Expenditure,36 Review of Economics and Statistics 387(1954).
29.Mancur Olson,The Logic of Collective Action:Public Goods and the Theory of Groups(Harvard University Press,rev.ed.,1971).
30.William Vickrey,Counterspeculation,Auctions and Competitive Sealed Tenders,16 Journal of Finance 8(1961);William Vickrey,Automobile Accidents,Tort Law,Externalities,and Insurance:An Economist’s Critique,33 Law and Contemporary Problems 464(1968).
31.Edward H.Clarke,Multipart Pricing of Public Goods,11 Public Choice 17(1971);Theodore Groves,Incentives in Teams,41 Econometrica 617(1973).
32.Theodore Groves&John Ledyard,Optimal Allocation of Public Goods:A Solution to the“Free Rider”Problem,45 Econometrica 783(1977);Aanund Hylland&Richard Zeckhauser,A Mechanism for Selecting Public Goods When Preferences Must Be Elicited(Kennedy School of Government,Harvard University,Discussion Paper 51,1980).
33.关于对此图更详细的阐述,参见Nicolaus Tideman&Florenz Plassmann,Efficient Bilateral Taxation of Externalities,172 Public Choice 109(2017)。
34.在Weyl网上发布他的成果Quadratic Voting Buying(2012)的几个月后,经济学家Jacob Goeree和章晶晶独立发现了一个更特殊的版本,他们的论文发表于2017年。Jacob Goeree&Jingjing Zhang,One Man,One Bid,101 Games&Economic Behavior 151(2017).
35.这是一个离散化的数值例子,而不是模型的一个特征。选民从投票中获得的边际收益乘以投出的选票数目(MB*v),并支付投票数的平方(v2)。假设边际效益等于边际成本,v*=MB/2。因此,选民的投票数将与他的边际效益成比例。产生这种结果的原因是二次关系的导数是线性的。
36.Weyl与其合作者的数学证明表明,这种“成为关键选民的机会”对大多数人来说在不同的环境下都非常相似,特别是当选民人数众多时,这意味着近似的结果相当准确。事实上,在对各种案例进行调查后,这些分析无法找到一个QV失去超过5%的潜在福利的例子;而如果大多数人的收益很小,而少数人收益很大的话,1 p1v很容易100%失败。这并不意味着QV是完美的,它也不比我们上一章寻求解决的不完全竞争市场更完美。未来的创新者肯定会进一步完善QV,正如我们在前一章中试图完善资本主义市场一样。然而,QV代表着朝集体决策市场运作迈出的重要一步。Steven P.Lalley&E.Glen Weyl,Quadratic Voting:How Mechanism Design Can Radicalize Democracy,American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings(Forthcoming);Steven P.Lalley&E.Glen Weyl,Nash Equilibria for Quadratic Voting(2017)at https://arxiv.org/abs/1409.0264;Bharat K.Chandar&E.Glen Weyl,Quadratic Voting in Finite Populations(May 21,2017)at https://ssrn.com/abstract=2571026;E.Glen Weyl,The Robustness of Quadratic Voting,172 Public Choice 75(2017).
37.Louis Kaplow&Scott Duke Kominers,Who Will Vote Quadratically?Voter Turnout and Votes Cast Under Quadratic Voting,172 Public Choice 125(2017).
38.E.Glen Weyl,The Robustness of Quadratic Voting,172 Public Choice 125(2017).
39.定义平等发言权的概念有一些重要的微妙之处,因为用于投票的问题的定义及其相对成本可能会对一些公民有利,也可能对他们不利。参见Daniel Benjamin,Ori Heffetz,Miles Kimball,&Derek Lougee,The Relationship Between the Normalized Gradient Addition Mechanism and Quadratic Voting,172 Public Choice 233(2017)。我们现在正在与其他学者合作来更深入地研究这些问题。
40.像罗纳德·德沃金(Ronald Dworkin)这样的哲学家认为,理想的资源分配模型是一种从平等收入开始的竞争均衡。例如Ronald Dworkin,What Is Equality?Part II:Equality of Resources,10 Philosophy&Public Affairs 283(1981);Ronald Dworkin,Sovereign Virtue:The Theory and Practice of Equality(Harvard University Press,2000)。
41.Rensis Likert,A Technique for the Measurement of Attitudes,in Archives of Philosophy No.140,5–55(R.S.Woodworth,ed.,1932).
42.Sendhil Mullainathan&Eldar Shafir,Scarcity:The New Science of Having Less and How It Defines Our Lives(Picador,2014).
43.David Quarfoot,Douglas von Kohorn,Kevin Slavin,Rory Sutherland,David Goldstein,&Ellen Konar,Quadratic Voting in the Wild:Real People,Real Votes,172 Public Choice 283(2017).
44.QV分布仍然存在一个异常情况:在0处下降。这源于weDesign软件的弱点:我们只允许在问题上“全部”投票。如果你已经在一个问题上投了好几票,那么你可能就不能再投票给你热衷的其他问题,因为你可能只剩下几个积分了。大多数参与者变得如此投入,以至于他们想要用尽所有的积分,从而利用最后的几个积分来“撬动”问题,否则他们将在任何一个方向上都投0或1票。虽然这进一步表明参与者的投入,但我们还是希望在迭代软件时修复这个“bug”。
45.Alisha Holland,Square Miles:The Spatial Politics of Mass Infrastructure,American Political Science Association Working Paper,2017.
46.Liran Einav,Chiara Farronato,&Jonathan Levin,Peer-to-Peer Markets,8 Annual Review of Economics 615(2016).
47.Chris Nosko&Steven Tadelis,The Limits of Reputation in Platform Markets:An Empirical Analysis and Field Experiment(National Bureau of Economic Research,Working Paper No.20830,2015).
48.Andrew Quentson,Can Ethereum-Based Akasha Revolutionize Social Networks?Cryptocoins News,January 29,2017,https://www.ccn.com/can-ethereum-based-akasha-revolutionize-socialnetworks/.
49.更多公司治理的应用,参见Eric A.Posner&E.Glen Weyl,Quadratic Voting as Efficient Corporate Governance,81 University of Chicago Law Review 251(2014)。
50.对这些观点更详细的阐述,参见Eric A.Posner&E.Glen Weyl,Voting Squared:Quadratic Voting in Democratic Politics,68 Vanderbilt Law Review 441(2015);Eric A.Posner&Nicholas Stephanopoulos,Quadratic Election Law,172 Public Choice 265(2017)。
51.值得注意的是,还有一些更接近1 p1v的系统也避免了这一点。例如,孔多塞设计的规则,史蒂文·布拉姆斯(Steven Brams)在20世纪70年代后期提出的连记投票系统,以及沃伦·史密斯(Warren Smith)的“计分投票制”。参见Steven J.Brams&Peter C.Fishburn,Approval Voting(Birkhauser,2d ed.,2007);Warren D.Smith,Range Voting(unpublished manuscript,November 28,2000)。可在http://rangevoting.org/WarrenSmithPages/homepage/rangevote.pdf网站下载。不幸的是,这些系统没有QV的其他好处,特别是二阶投票制采用的少数服从多数的规则。
52.在与计算机科学家妮可·英茉莉卡(Nicole Immorlica)和卡特里娜·利盖特(Katrina Ligett)的合作中,我们中的一人正努力严格地证明,在合理的条件下,这个逻辑意味着QV总是能够选出能使最多人获得最大幸福的候选人。
53.Michel Balinski&Rida Laraki,Majority Judgment vs Majority Rule,Working Paper(2016)。我们进行了一项基于李克特量表的调查,并假设量表上的每一个点都对应着一定数量的投票。考虑到我们在第2章讨论的删除极值的情况,这可能低估了QV的结果的强度。在这种方法下,卡西奇(Kasich)是唯一有净正的票数的候选人(0.12),接下来是桑德斯(Sanders)(-0.11)、克鲁兹(Cruz)(-0.22)、克林顿(Clinton)(-0.32),以及特朗普(Trump)(-0.69)。
54.Daron Acemoglu,Suresh Naidu,Pascual Restrepo,&James A.Robinson,Democracy Does Cause Growth,Journal of Political Economy(Forthcoming).
55.QV还提供了一种可能性,即通过提供一种既丰富又昂贵的匿名的方式,让公民表达自己的政治信念,从而帮助打破“政治正确”和无成本的网络攻击性言语的双重束缚。
56.John Kenneth Galbraith,The Affluent Society 187(Mariner Books,1958).
第3章 联合全世界的工人
1.关于悠久贸易史的描述,参见William J.Bernstein,A Splendid Exchange:How Trade Shaped the World(Grove Press,2009)。
2.Edgar S.Furniss,The Position of the Laborer in a System of Nationalism.A Study in the Labor Theories of the Late English Mercantilists(Houghton Mifflin Company,1920).
3.我们得益于与迈克尔·克莱门斯(Michael Clemens)的讨论,他将还没有发表的研究和我们分享。Michael Clemens,Economics and Emigration:Trillion Dollar Bills on the Sidewalk?,25 Journal of Economic Perspectives 3(2011).
4.Barry Baysinger,Robert B.Eckelund,Jr.,&Robert D.Tollison,Mercantilism as a RentSeeking Society,in Roger D.Congleton,Arye L.Hillman,&Kai A.Konrad,eds.,40 Years of Research on Rent-Seeking 2:Applications:Rent-Seeking in Practice(Springer,2008).
5.Furniss,Position of the Laborer in a System of Nationalism.
6.François Bourguignon&Christian Morrisson,Inequality Among World Citizens:1820–1992,92 American Economic Review 727(2002).
7.严格地说,这个衡量标准只是一个近似值,因为实际衡量标准使用的是连续复合增长百分比,所以这种解释只有当变化相对温和时是准确的。正式的衡量标准是平均收入的自然对数与收入自然对数平均值之间的差。
8.由于平均对数离差采用连续复利计算,这种计算方法不太正确。在这种情况下,平均对数离差实际上是2.76个对数点。然而,对于不太显著的收入变化,这种近似是一种理解平均对数离差含义好的方法。
9.关于对此深刻的总结,参见Branko Milanovic,Global Inequality:A New Approach for the Age of Globalization(Belknap Press,2016)。
10.Richard J.Evans,The Pursuit of Power:Europe 1815–1914(Penguin,2016).
11.Letter from Karl Marx to Sigfrid Meyer&August Vogt(April 9,1870).
12.Matthew Annis,Henry George,John Stuart Mill,and Solving the“Knotty Labor Question”(October 26,2011),https://thechinesequestion.wordpress.com/tag/john-stuart-mill/;Edward Alsworth Ross,The Old World in the New(Century Company,1914).
13.Migration Policy Institute,U.S.Immigrant Population and Share over Time,1850–Present,http://www.migrationpolicy.org/programs/data-hub/charts/immigrant-population-over-time.
14.Steven Best,The Global Industrial Complex:Systems of Domination,ix(Lexington Books,2011).
15.Niels Boel,Eduardo Galeano:The Open Veins of McWorld,54 UNESCO Courier 4(2001).
16.Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas&Olivier Jeanne,The Elusive Gains from International Financial Integration,73 Review of Economic Studies 715(2006).
17.Jonathan D.Ostry,Prakash Loungani,&Davide Furceri,Neoliberalism:Oversold?,53 IMF Finance and Development 38(2016).
18.John Gibson&David McKenzie,Eight Questions about Brain Drain,25 Journal of Economic Perspectives 107(2011),and Frédéric Docquier&Hillel Rapoport,Globalization,Brain Drain,and Development,50 Journal of Economic Literature 681(2012).
19.显然,这些计算非常粗糙,而且忽略了许多因素。例如,大规模移民所造成的移民工资的变化。然而,经济学家们最严谨的研究几乎一致地发现,完全开放移民将使全球收益增加50%到150%不等,因此,按照文献的标准,20%的收益实际上相当有限。参见Clemens,Economics and Emigration。
20.Wolfgang F.Stolper&Paul A.Samuelson,Protection and Real Wages,9 Review of Economic Studies 58(1941).
21.George J.Borjas,The Labor Demand Curve Is Downward Sloping:Reexamining the Impact of Immigration on the Labor Market,118 Quarterly Journal of Economics 1335(2003).
22.George J.Borjas,Issues in the Economics of Immigration(Princeton University Press,2001).
23.David Card,Is the New Immigration Really So Bad?115 Economic Journal F300(2005);Gianmarco I.P.Ottaviano&Giovanni Peri,Rethinking the Effect of Migration on Wages,10 Journal of the European Economic Association 152(2012).
24.National Academy of Sciences,Engineering,and Medicine,The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration(National Academies Press,2016).
25.Dane Stangler&Jason Wiens,The Economic Case for Welcoming Immigrant Entrepreneurs(2015).http://www.kauffman.org/what-we-do/resources/entrepreneurship-policy-digest/theeconomic-case-for-welcoming-immigrant-entrepreneurs.
26.National Academy,Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration.
27.Christian Dustmann&Tommaso Frattini,The Fiscal Effects of Immigration to the UK(2014),24 Economic Journal F565(2016).
28.Joel S.Fetzer,Public Attitudes Toward Immigration in the United States,France and Germany(Cambridge University Press,2000).
29.对于将法律非强制执行作为一种政策工具的系统研究,参见Alisha Holland,Forbearance as Redistribution:The Politics of Informal Welfare in Latin America(Cambridge University Press,2017)。
30.Gary S.Becker,The Challenge of Immigration:A Radical Solution(Institute of Economic Affairs,2011).
31.参见The Economist,Immigration Systems:What’s the Point?July 7th,2016对此的总结。
32.一些依靠轶事数据的研究的确记录了一些虐待事件,但问题是现有的项目都不是以外来务工者项目的形式组织的。参见Janie A.Chuang,The U.S.Au Pair Program:Labor Exploitation and the Myth of Cultural Exchange,36 Harvard Journal of Law and Gender 269(2013);Daniel Costa,Guestworker Diplomacy,Economic Policy Institute Briefing Paper No.317(July 14,2011),http://www.epi.org/files/2011/BriefingPaper317.pdf.相反,它们被组织为文化交流项目,然后由雇主和安排移民的私人中介机构操纵。虐待源于这种不匹配;一个合理组织的外来务工者项目将会有更多的保护。
33.E.Glen Weyl,The Openness-Equality Trade-Off in Global Redistribution,Economic Journal(Forthcoming),https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2755304.这一节的其余部分正是基于这篇论文的实证部分。
34.Michael Clemens,The Walls of Nations(Columbia University Press,forthcoming).
35.Douglas S.Massey,Jorge Durand,&Nolan J.Malone,Beyond Smoke and Mirrors:Mexican Immigration in an Era of Economic Integration(Russell Sage Foundation,2002).
第4章 肢解大章鱼
1.Aristotle,Aristotle’s Politics(Carnes Lord,ed.&trans.,University of Chicago Press,2d ed.,2013)(350 BCE).
2.Claude Menard,Three Forms of Resistance to Statistics:Say,Cournot,Walras,12 History of Political Economy 524(1980).
3.Léon Walras,Studies in Social Economics 157(Jan van Daal&Donald A.Walker,trans.,Routledge,2d ed.,2010)(1896).
4.15 U.S.C.§§1–7(1890).
5.Renato Crillo,Léon Walras and Social Justice,43 American Journal of Economics&Society 1(1984).
6.Ransom E.Noble,Jr.,Henry George and the Progressive Movement,8 American Journal of Economics&Society 3(1949).
7.Standard Oil Co.of N.J.v.United States,221 U.S.1(1911).
8.For a short history,see William E.Kovacic&Carl Shapiro,Antitrust Policy:A Century of Economic and Legal Thinking,14 Journal of Economic Perspectives 43(2000).
9.Einer Elhauge,Horizontal Shareholding,109 Harvard Law Review 1267(2016).
10.Lewis Carroll,Through the Looking-Glass 50(Henry Altemus,1897).
11.15 U.S.C.§18(amend.1950).
12.David Gerber,Law and Competition in Twentieth-Century Europe:Protecting Prometheus(Clarendon Press,2001).
13.See Peter L.Bernstein,Capital Ideas:The Improbable Origins of Modern Wall Street(Wiley,1992),for a history.
14.A classic statement of this theory is Burton G.Malkiel,A Random Walk Down Wall Street:The Time-Tested Strategy for Successful Investing(W.W.Norton&Com-pany,10th ed.,2012).
15.Robert J.Shiller,Irrational Exuberance(Princeton University Press,3d ed.,2015).
16.截至2010年,投资机构持有价值11.5万亿美元的普通股。同年,指数基金持有大约1.4万亿美元。Marshall E.Blume&Donald B.Keim,Institutional Investors and Stock Market Liquidity:Trends and Relationships,5(working paper,Wharton School,University of Pennsylvania,2012),http://finance.wharton.upenn.edu/~keim/research/ChangingInstitutionPreferences_21Aug2012.pdf.
17.Business Insider’s Global Macro Monitor,Q3 2012;http://www.businessinsider.com/whoowns-the-us-equity-market-2013-1.
18.Joseph A.McCahery,Zacharias Sautner,&Laura T.Starks,Behind the Scenes:The Corporate Governance Preferences of Institutional Investors,71 Journal of Finance 2905(2016).
19.OECD Institutional Investor Statistics,2008–2015。对于欧洲更详细的讨论,也可参见JoséAzar&Martin C.Schmalz,Common Ownership of Competitors Raises Antitrust Concerns,8 Journal of European Competition Law&Practice 329(2017)。
20.这种观点在20世纪90年代很普遍。参见Bernard S.Black,Agents Watching Agents:The Promise of Institutional Investor Voice,39 UCLA Law Review 811(1992);Mark J.Roe,A Political Theory of American Corporate Finance,91 Columbia Law Review 10(1991)。对于一些早期的批评,参见Edward B.Rock,The Logic and(Uncertain)Significance of Institutional Shareholder Activism,79 Georgetown Law Journal.445(1991);John C.Coffee,Jr.,The SEC and the Institutional Investor:A Half-Time Report,15 Cardozo Law Review 837(1994)。
21.来自JoséAzar,Sahil Raina,&Martin C.Schmalz,Ultimate Ownership and Bank Competition(unpublished manuscript,July 23,2016),https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2710252。
22.Jan Fichtner,Eelke M.Heemskerk,&Javier Garcia-Bernardo,Hidden Power of the Big Three?Passive Index Funds,Re-Concentration of Corporate Ownership,and New Financial Risk,19 Business and Politics 298(2017);JoséAzar,Portfolio Diversification,Market Power,and the Theory of the Firm(IESE Business School,Working Paper No.1170-E,2017),https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2811221.
23.Jie He&Jiekun Huang,Product Market Competition in a World of Cross-Ownership:Evidence from Institutional Blockholdings,30 Review of Financial Studies 2674(2017).
24.阿扎尔首先在他2012年的博士论文中对这些问题进行了讨论。参见JoséAzar,A New Look at Oligopoly:Implicit Collusion Through Portfolio Diversification(unpublished PhD dissertation,Princeton University May 2012),http://www.princeton.edu/~smorris/pdfs/PhD/Azar.pdf。他随后把这项工作转化成了若干篇论文,包含在JoséAzar,Portfolio Diversification,Market Power,and the Theory of the Firm(IESE Business School,Working Paper No.1170-E,2017),$ahttps://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2811221$a$lhttps://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2811221$a,以及在注解21和注解31中他的合作论文。
25.大部分基于legal authority of Section 7 of the Clayton Act,15 U.S.C.§18(1996)的法律效力。
26.U.S.Department of Justice&Federal Trade Commission,Horizontal Merger Guidelines(2010),https://www.ftc.gov/sites/default/files/attachments/merger-review/100819hmg.pdf;Sonia Jaffe&E.Glen Weyl,The First-Order Approach to Merger Analysis,5 American Economic Journal:Microeconomics 188(2013).
27.Germán Guitérrez&Thomas Philippon,Investment-less Growth:An Empirical Investigation(National Bureau of Economic Research,Working Paper No.22897,2016).而且,Schmalz报告了他与一位基金经理的谈话,在谈话中,这位经理向Schmalz承认,由于市场份额之争是一个零和博弈,因此他不会建议他的投资组合公司与他的其他投资组合公司进行更激烈的竞争。Martin Schmalz,Anti-Competitive Effects of Common Ownership(presentation at Columbia Law School,November 3,2016).
28.Miguel Antón,Florian Ederer,Mireia Giné,&Martin C.Schmalz,Common Ownership,Competition,and Top Management Incentives(Ross School of Business,Paper No.1328,2017).
29.Martin C.Schmalz,One Big Reason There’s So Little Competition Among U.S.Banks,Harvard Business Review(June 13,2016),https://hbr.org/2016/06/one-big-reason-theres-so-littlecompetition-among-u-s-banks.
30.商业社会学家将这种转变称为“金融主导”或“后福特时代”的商业模式。参见William Lazonick&Mary O’Sullivan,Maximizing Shareholder Value:A New Ideology for CorporateGovernance,29 Economics&Society 13(2000),来回顾这一举措的早期历史。关于近代的发展状况,也可参见Engelbert Stockhammer,Some Stylized Facts on the Finance-Dominated Accumulation Regime,12 Competition&Change 184(2008)。
31.JoséAzar,Martin C.Schmalz,&Isabel Tecu,Anti-Competitive Effects of Common Ownership,Journal of Finance(Forthcoming)。
32.Azar,Ultimate Ownership and Bank Competition.
33.Antón et al.,Common Ownership。
34.David Autor,David Dorn,Lawrence F.Katz,Christina Patterson,&John Van Reenen,The Fall of the Labor Share and the Rise of Superstar Firms(MIT Working Paper,2017),https://economics.mit.edu/files/12979;and De Loecker&Eeckhout,The Rise of Market Power.
35.Jacob S.Hacker&Paul Pierson,Winner-Take-All Politics:How Washington Made the Rich Richer—And Turned Its Back on the Middle Class(Simon and Schuster,2011).
36.Eric A.Posner,Fiona M.Scott Morton,&E.Glen Weyl,A Proposal to Limit the AntiCompetitive Power of Institutional Investors,81 Antitrust Law Journal 669(2017).
37.Posner et al.,A Proposal to Limit the Anti-Competitive Power of Institutional Investors.
38.Ronald J.Gilson&Jeffrey N.Gordon,Agency Capitalism:Further Implica tions of Equity Intermediation 7(Columbia Law and Economics Working Paper No.461,2014).也参见Ronald J.Gilson&Jeffrey N.Gordon,The Agency Costs of Agency Capitalism:Activist Investors and the Revaluation of Governance Rights,113 Columbia Law Review 863(2011).
39.在此段落中我们持谨慎的态度,因为这个行业复杂多变,而且人们对它的了解也很匮乏。
40.Ali Hortaçsu&Chad Syverson,Product Differentiation,Search Costs,and Competition in the Mutual Fund Industry:A Case Study of S&P 500 Index Funds,119 Quarterly Journal of Economics 403(2004);John C.Coates IV&R.Glenn Hubbard,Competition in the Mutual Fund Industry:Evidence and Implications for Policy,33 Journal of Corporate Law 151(2007).
41.John Y.Campbell et al.,Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile?An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk,56 Journal of Finance 1(2001).
42.Karen K.Lewis,Why Do Stocks and Consumption Imply Such Different Gains from International Risk Sharing?52 Journal of International Economics 1(2000).
43.15 U.S.C.§18(1996).
44.15 U.S.C.§18(1996).
45.353 U.S.586(1957).
46.353 U.S.586,597–98(1957).
47.Elhauge,Horizontal Shareholding。
48.因此,正如一些读者所建议的那样,我们的论证并不依赖于企业之间的有意识协调。
49.Elhauge,Horizontal Shareholding,at 1305–1308.
50.事实上,投资机构至少资助了一份出版物来对学术研究进行质疑。参见Daniel P.O’Brien&Keith Waehrer,The Competitive Effects of Common Ownership:We Know Less than We Think(February 23,2017),https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2922677。作者在第一个脚注中指出,他们从投资公司协会(Investment Company Institute)得到资助。这是一个从事游说和其他相关活动的投资公司的协会。
51.Thomas Piketty,Emmanuel Saez,&Gabriel Zucman,Distributional National Accounts:Methods and Estimates for the United States(National Bureau of Economic Research,Working Paper No.22945,2016).
52.Posner et al.,Proposal to Limit the Anti-Competitive Power of Institutional Investors.
53.Posner et al.,Proposal to Limit the Anti-Competitive Power of Institutional Investors.
54.Nathan Wilmers,Wage Stagnation and Buyer Power:How Buyer-Supplier Relations Affect U.S.Worker Wages,1978-2014,American Sociological Review(Forthcoming).
55.Matthew Desmond,Evicted:Poverty and Profit in the American City(Broadway Books,2016).
56.Clayton M.Christensen,The Innovator’s Dilemma:When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail(Harvard Business Review Press,2016).
57.Luis Cabral,Standing on the Shoulders of Dwarfs:Dominant Firms and Innovation Incentives(2017),http://luiscabral.net/economics/workingpapers/inno vation%202017%2007.pdf.
58.不是帕特里克·亨利(Patrick Henry),也不是托马斯·杰斐逊。很显然,这来自于1853年废奴主义者温德尔·菲利普斯(Wendell Phillips)的观点。参见http://www.bartleby.com/73/1073.html。
第5章 数据作为劳动成果
1.Jaron Lanier,Who Owns the Future?(Simon&Schuster,2013).
2.虽然拉尼尔(Lanier)的作品为我们的工作提供了直接的灵感,但他提出的主题几乎同时出现在其他学术领域。参见Lilly C.Irani&M.Six Silberman,Turkopticon:Interrupting Worker Invisibility in Amazon Mechanical Turk,CHI’13 Proceedings of the SIGCHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems(2013),以及Trebor Scholz,ed.,Digital Labor:The Internet as Playground and Factory(Routledge,2013)。
3.Imanol Arrieta-Ibarra,Leonard Goff,Diego Jiménez-Hernández,Jaron Lanier&E.Glen Weyl,Should We Treat Data as Labor?Moving Beyond“Free,”American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings(Forthcoming).
4.关于在女性工作和数据工作之间建立一种有趣而有艺术性的联系,参见http://wagesforfacebook.com/。关于此类比更加学术化的分析,参见Kylie Jarrett,The Relevance of“Women’s Work”:Social Reproduction and Immaterial Labor in Digital Media,15 Television&New Media 14(2014)。
5.Marc Anthony Neal,What the Music Said:Black Popular Music and Black Public Culture(Routledge,1999).
6.Lanier,Who Owns the Future?.
7.Julien Mailland&Kevin Driscoll,Minitel:Welcome to the Internet(MIT Press,2017).
8.Franklin Foer,The World Without Mind:The Existential Threat of Big Tech(Penguin,2017).
9.Richard J.Gilbert&Michael L.Katz,An Economist’s Guide to U.S.v.Microsoft,15 Journal of Economic Perspectives 25(2001).
10.Sergey Brin&Lawrence Page,The Anatomy of a Large-Scale Hypertextual Web Search Engine,30 Computer Network&ISDN Systems 107(1998).
11.Richard Thaler,Toward a Positive Theory of Consumer Choice,1 Journal of Economic Behavior&Organization 39(1980).
12.Chris Anderson,Free:The Future of a Radical Price(Hyperion,2009).
13.Jakob Nielsen,The Case for Micropayments,Nielsen Norman Group(January 25,1998),https://www.nngroup.com/articles/the-case-for-micropayments/.
14.Daniela Hernandez,Facebook’s Quest to Build an Artificial Brain Depends on this Guy,Wired(2014),https://www.wired.com/2014/08/deep-learning-yann-lecun/.
15.“复杂性”通常作为学术用语,指问题在最坏情况下的难度。在通常情况下,这些最坏情况的边界是非常“保守”的,因为它们极大地夸大了典型真实世界中的需求。略微滥用一下命名法,我们使用复杂性来指在实践中典型或“平均”情况下问题的需求,而不是在最坏的情况下可以证明的需求。
16.https://news.microsoft.com/features/democratizing-ai/.
17.网飞的月订阅费是10美元,根据网飞公开发布的统计数据,2015年,一个典型的订阅用户每天观看1.5小时的视频。
18.Foer,World Without Mind.
19.Carl Benedikt Frey&Michael A.Osborne,The Future of Employment:How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?114 Technological Forecasting&Social Change 254(2017).
20.Daron Acemoglu&Pascual Restrepo,Robots and Jobs:Evidence from US Labor Markets(National Bureau of Economic Research,Working Paper No.23285,2017).
21.Arrieta-Ibarra et al.,Should We Treat Data as Labor?
22.David Autor et al.,The Fall of the Labor Share and the Rise of Superstar Firms(National Bureau of Economic Research,Working Paper No.23396,2017).
23.Julie E.Cohen,The Biopolitical Public Domain:The Legal Construction of the Surveillance Economy,Philosophy and Technology(Forthcoming).
24.Colm Harmon,Hessel Oosterbeek,&Ian Walker,The Returns to Education:Microeconomics,17 Journal of Economic Surveys 115(2003).
25.Ming Yin et al.,The Communication Network Within the Crowd(Proceedings of the 25th International Conference on World Wide Web 1293,2016),https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/turker_network1.pdf.
26.Irani&Silberman,Turkopticon;and Mary L.Gray&Siddharth Suri,The Humans Working Behind the AI Curtain,Harvard Business Review,January 9,2017.
27.Mary L.Gray&Siddharth Suri,this project is currently untitled,but is under contract from Houghton Mifflin Harcourt.(Forthcoming).
28.Annalee Newitz,Raters of the World,Unite—The Secret Lives of Google Raters,Ars Technica(April 27,2017),https://arstechnica.com/features/2017/04/the-secret-lives-of-google-raters/.
29.例如,2017年,关于一名批评谷歌商业行为的政策研究人员被解聘一事,谷歌在其中起到的作用引发了激烈争论。
30.相关的文献综述,参见Roland Bénabou&Jean Tirole,Intrinsic and Extrinsic Motivation,70 Review of Economic Studies 489(2003).
31.Sara Constance Kingsley et al.,Accounting for Market Frictions and Power Asymmetries in Online Labor Markets,7 Policy&Internet 383(2015).
32.Arindrajit Dube,Jeff Jacobs,Suresh Naidu,&Siddharth Suri,Monopsony in Crowdsourcing Labor Markets(Columbia University Working Paper,2017).
33.https://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/06/business/facebook-bends-the-rules%.20-of-audienceengagement-to-its-advantage.html?mcubz=0&_r=0.
34.David L.Harris,Massachusetts Woman’s Lawsuit Accuses Google of Using Free Labor to Transcribe Books,Newspapers,Boston Business Journal(January 23,2015),https://www.bizjournals.com/boston/blog/techflash/2015/01/massachu setts-womans-lawsuit-accuses-google-of.html.
35.对这一研究的综述,参见Adam Alter,Irresistible:The Rise of Addictive Technology and the Business of Keeping Us Hooked(Penguin,2017).
36.Bénabou&Tirole,Intrinsic and Extrinsic Motivation;Roland Bénabou&Jean Tirole,Incentives and Prosocial Behavior,96 American Economic Review 1652(2006).
37.Aaron Smith,What Internet Users Know about Technology and the Web,Pew Research Center(November 25,2014),http://www.pewinternet.org/2014/11/25/web-iq/.
38.Lisa Barnard,The Cost of Creepiness:How Online Behavioral Advertising Affects Consumer Purchase Intention,https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/indexablecontent/uuid:ceb8622f-1490–4078ae41–4dc57f24e08b(unpublished PhD dissertation,University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill,2014);Finn Brunton&Helen Nissenbaum,Obfuscation:A User’s Guide for Privacy and Protest(MIT Press,2015).
39.关于如何实现的提议,参考Lanier,Who Owns the Future?Butler Lampson,Personal Control of Data,Microsoft Research(July 13,2016),https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/video/personal-control-of-data/。
40.Karl Marx,Capital:A Critique of Political Economy(Ben Fowkes,trans.,Penguin Classics,1992)(1867).
41.Friedrich Engels,The Condition of the Working Class in England(David McLellan,ed.,Oxford University Press,2009).
42.Beatrice&Sydney Webb,Industrial Democracy(Longmans Green and Co.,1897).
43.John Kenneth Galbraith,American Capitalism:The Concept of Countervailing Power(Houghton Mifflin,1952).
44.Robert C.Allen,Engels’Pause:Technical Change,Capital Accumulation,and Inequality in the British Industrial Revolution,46 Explorations in Economic History 418(2009).
45.这是这些作者进展中的一项工作的主题,2016年,阿赛莫格鲁在微软的一次讲座中对此展开了讨论。Daron Acemoglu,The Impact of IT on the Labor Market(September 2016),https://economics.mit.edu/files/12118.
46.我们中的一位正致力于与不同合作者在不同的情境下量化数据的边际价值。
47.这个项目的第一篇论文是Azevedo et al.,2017,“A/B Testing,”但这仅仅涉及利用数据测试新产品,并为新产品提供建议的有限方面。虽然这是数据劳动价值的一个重要组成部分,但远不是主要组成部分。2018年,Weyl和Lanier、Imanol Arrieta Ibarra,以及Diego Jiménez Hernández合作,将建立更广泛应用的系统来实证计算数据在各种ML环境下的价值。
48.例如,参见Lawrence F.Katz&Alan B.Krueger,The Rise and Nature of Alternative Work Arrangements in the United States,1995–2015(National Bureau of Economic Research,Working Paper No.22667,2016);Jonathan V.Hall&Alan B.Krueger,An Analysis of the Labor Market for Uber’s Driver-Partners in the United States(National Bureau of Economic Research,Working Paper No.22843,2016);Gray&Suri,untitled book project。
49.Mark Aguiar,Mark Bils,Kerwin Kofi Charles,&Erik Hurst,Leisure Luxuries and the Labor Supply of Young Men(NBER Working Paper,2017).
结语 寻根问底
1.经济学界技术乐天派最突出的代表作是Erik Brynjolfsson和Andrew McAfee在2014年合作出版的The Second Machine Age:Work,Progress and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies(W.W.Norton&Company)。更广泛地说,最著名的技术乐观主义者是Ray Kurzweil,他写了一系列书。
2.技术悲观主义者最著名的观点可参见Robert J.Gordon 2016年的书,The Rise and Fall of American Growth:The U.S.Standard of Living since the Civil War(Princeton University Press)。
3.这种观点在经济学家之间非常普遍。我们无法一一列举最近几年发表的大量论文——这些论文记录了巨大而且日益变得重要的市场力量,但我们为读者推荐一个非常优秀的博客,http://www.promarket.org,读者从那里可以获取一套全面的资源。
4.鉴于许多经济学家对经济史的理解,这种对经济前景的看法却没有得到更广泛的认同,或许这令人惊讶。例如,根据2016年经济学家Daron Acemoglu在图卢兹信息技术网络上做的一场题为“The Impact of IT on Labor Markets”的报告,19世纪初英国卢德分子对于技术取代工人的恐惧被证明是“错的,”这不是因为野性的资本抬高了劳动力的价格,而是因为激进的制度变迁(工会、全民教育等)帮助工人抓住了经济机会。
5.参见Jacob S.Hacker&Paul Pierson,Winner-Take-All Politics:How Washington Made the Rich Richer—and Turned Its Back on the Middle Class(Simon&Schuster,2011),里面记录了在过去几十年中合作公司日益集中的政治力量。
6.根据人们目前对这种权衡的理解,它可能违法了第一修正案,但我们认为法院最终会适应政治上的发展而做出对社会有益的调整。
7.Eric A.Posner&Nicholas Stephanopoulos,Quadratic Election Law,172 Public Choice 265(2017).
8.对这种担忧更详细的讨论,参见Ben Laurence&Itai Sher,Ethical Considerations on Quadratic Voting,172 Public Choice 195(2017);Josiah Ober,Equality,Legitimacy,Interests,and Preferences:Historical Notes on Quadratic Voting in a Political Context,172 Public Choice 223(2017)。
9.Milanovic,Global Inequality.
10.Margaret E.Peters,Trading Barriers:Immigration and the Remaking of Globalization(Princeton University Press,2017).
11.Eric A.Posner&Alan O.Sykes,Voting Rules in International Organizations,15 Chicago Journal of International Law 195(2014).
12.Émile Durkheim,The Division of Labour in Society(Simon&Schuster 1997;originally published in 1893).
13.此批判最经典和最精心的版本,当属Fred Hirsch,The Social Limits to Growth(Harvard University Press,1976),但最近类似的主题也得到了发展,参考Michael J.Sandel,What Money Can’t Buy:The Moral Limits of Markets(Farrar,Straus and Giroux,2012)和Samuel Bowles,The Moral Economy:Why Good Incentives Are No Substitute for Good Citizens(Yale University Press,2016)。
14.A.O.Hirschman,Rival Interpretations of Market Society:Civilizing,Destructive,or Feeble?,20 Journal of Economic Literature 1463(1982).
15.Durkheim,Division of Labour in Society.
16.Jane Jacobs,The Death and Life of Great American Cities(Random House,1961).
17.Marion Fourcade&Kieran Healy,Moral Views of Market Society,33 Annual Review of Sociology 285(2007)强调市场最强大的愿景本质上是道德方面的,而不仅仅是经济方面的。我们希望一些读者会发现,这种道德愿景是激进市场计划的重要组成部分。
18.有些人可能想知道,人们是否会害怕别人夺走他们的财产。然而,在最优COST率下,个人会将他们的财产定价,使之高于他们愿意接受的金额,因此,一桩买卖仍然是互利的,只是不像现在那样以一种不平衡的方式。有些人可能严重低估资产价值,并试图隐藏或贬低资产,以避免被迫出售资产,但就像避税一样,这种反社会策略会而且应该受到社会制裁;请看后面的内容。
19.Gary Becker,The Economics of Discrimination(University of Chicago Press,2d ed.,2010).
20.Richard H.Thaler&Cass R.Sunstein,Nudge:Improving Decisions About Health,Wealth,and Happiness(Penguin,2009)。
收场 白市场之后?
1.F.A.Hayek,The Use of Knowledge in Society,35 American Economic Review 519(1945).
2.Leonard E.Read,I,Pencil(Foundation for Economic Education,2010)(1958),https://fee.org/media/14940/read-i-pencil.pdf.
3.Cosma Shalizi,In Soviet Union,Optimization Problem Solves You,Crooked Timber(May 30,2012),http://crookedtimber.org/2012/05/30/in-soviet-union-optimization-problem-solves-you/.
4.Oskar Lange,The Computer and the Market,in Socialism,Capitalism and Economic Growth:Essays Presented to Maurice Dobb(Cambridge University Press,C.H.Feinstein,ed.,1967).
5.Global Computing Capacity,AI Impacts(February 16,2016),http://aiimpacts.org/globalcomputing-capacity/#easy-footnote-bottom-7.
6.J.S.Jordan,The Competitive Allocation Process Is Informationally Efficient Uniquely,28 Journal of Economic Theory 1(1982);Noam Nisan&Ilya Segal,The Communication Requirements of Efficient Allocations and Supporting Prices,129 Journal of Economic Theory 192(2006).
7.Lange,The Computer and the Market,at 157.
8.The Soviet Union:GDP Growth,Nintil(March 26,2016),https://nintil.com/2016/03/26/thesoviet-union-gdp-growth/.
9.例如,可参见Modiface’s eye-tracking–based advertising analytic system described at http://www.mobilemarketer.com/news/modiface-eye-tracking-app-increases-smashbox-conversionsby-27/447825/。