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控制你的贪婪
怎样才能让大脑的预期回路避开财务困境呢？首先要意识到你的预期回路会失控，这就是它的一种工作方式。因此，如果你大脑的其余部分不对预期进行制衡，你最终将追逐每一个在你面前爆发的热点。从长远来看，除了风险和损失，你什么也得不到。下面的策略可以教你如何做得更好。
➢在华尔街，只有一件事是确定的，那就是，任何事情都是不确定的。[18]记住，你的搜寻系统是由发大财的感觉激发的，这种感觉会妨碍你计算发财的概率。要警惕那些想用套话来诱惑你上当的人，这些套话包括“让你的财产翻一倍”“上不封顶”“真的要涨了”等。一项投资的预期回报率越高，你应该问的问题就越多。从这个问题开始：为什么知道这个伟大投资的人愿意让其他人知道这个秘密呢？然后问自己这个问题：为什么这个难得的投资机遇偏偏降临到我头上呢？此外，千万不要，我重复一遍，千万不要根据一个你从未见过的经纪人主动打来的电话进行投资。你要说“不”，然后挂掉。千万不要，我还要重复一遍，千万不要回复一封不请自来的鼓励你投资的电子邮件，对这种邮件，直接删除，不要打开。
➢幸运很少两次青睐你。如果你曾经尝到过忽然发财的甜头，就很可能想用余生来找回那种感觉。虽然发现过去一直上涨的股票很容易，但要发现未来继续上涨的股票就难多了。尤其要当心那些令你回忆起很久以前赚过钱的股票，因为这类股票与之前你赚钱的那只股票有相似之处可能纯属巧合。只有仔细研究了一只股票背后的基本业务之后，你才可以投入巨资买入，即便股市放假5年，你也乐于持有。
➢把你的“应急钱”锁起来，把钥匙扔掉。如果你不能阻止自己在市场上冒险，那么至少要限制一下风险水平。就像一个赌徒把钱包锁在酒店保险箱里，只带200美元到赌场来，以此限制自己的潜在损失一样，你也应该为投机性交易设定一个上限。将至少90%的资金投入低成本、多元化、涵盖市场所有类别股票的指数基金中。投机交易的比例最高为10%。确保你的“应急钱”与你的长期投资完全分开，永远不要混在一起。不管它涨多少或跌多少，永远不要在投机性账户上加大赌注。（尤其重要的是，当你的交易行情很好时，要抵制住加大赌注的诱惑。）如果投机性账户赔了，就关掉它。
➢经得住暗示的诱惑。[19]巴甫洛夫实验中的那条狗一听到铃声响起就会流口水，酒鬼一听到房间另一头啤酒倒入玻璃杯的声音就渴望喝一杯，同样，股市也会不断地发出信号，诱惑你入场。纽约州立大学石溪分校的心理学家霍华德·拉克林（Howard Rachlin）指出，戒烟的第一步最好就是每天尝试抽同样数量的香烟，这给我们提供了一个线索：贪得无厌的机会越少，你预期的满足感越小，那么你的自控能力就越强。布莱恩·克努森建议：扪心自问一下，怎样才能清理自己的环境？（想想一个试图戒烟的人，他把所有的烟灰缸都藏了起来。）怎样才能让自己接触到更少的暗示？试着关掉电视上的财经频道，这样就不会有任何关于股市走势的喧嚣去分散你对长期财务目标的关注。或者，如果你发现自己每天都要经过当地的股票经纪公司，忍不住隔着窗户偷看电子显示器上的股票行情，那么你就另选一条路。如果你发现自己痴迷于在网上查看股票价格，那么可以使用浏览器上的历史窗口来计算每天查询股票价格的次数，这个数字可能会让你深感震惊。减少查询次数的第一步就是知道自己每天查询得多么频繁。
要控制暗示带来的诱惑，另一种简单而有效的方法是在你买入或卖出一只股票之前列出一份清单，写上每项投资必须达到的标准。伯克希尔–哈撒韦公司每年的年报中都列出了六项收购标准，其中包括董事长巴菲特和副董事长芒格对他们考虑收购的任何公司都适用的标准。确保清单中包括了一些你不愿意深入考虑的因素，这样你就可以很快排除掉那些可能诱惑你的坏主意。关于排除某些投资的规则清单，请参阅附录2。
➢三思而后行。至少在投资方面，马尔科姆·格拉德威尔提倡的“无思之想”会引发灾难。相反，你需要三思而后行。克努森说：“重要的是，要认识到风险收益的总额远远比获得收益的微小概率更能驱动你的行为。如果你能意识到这一点，那么你应该对自己说，‘我应该走开，和我的孩子们玩一个小时，然后再想想’。”在巨大收益的前景刺激下做出的财务决定是一个糟糕的主意。冷静下来，如果你没有孩子来分散你的注意力，那就绕着街区散散步或者去健身房，然后重新考虑一下，等到你的热情已经过去，预期回路已经冷却下来，再去思考。
[1] Ecclesiastes 5: 10.
[2] JZ interviews with Zink, Jan. 19 and Mar. 30, 2005; the odds of winning the grand prize in California’s Super Lotto Plus game are posted at www.calottery.com/Games/SuperLottoPlus/HowtoPlay/. Data on Ohio winners: Charles T. Clotfelter and Philip J.Cook, Selling Hope (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1991), p. 122.
[3] Hans C. Breiter et al.,“Imaging the Neural Systems for Motivated Behavior and Their Dysfunction in Neuropsychiatric Illness,” in Thomas S. Deisboeck and J. Yasha Kresh, eds., Complex Systems Science in Biomedicine (New York: Springer, 2006), pp. 763–810; JZ telephone interview with P. Read Montague, June 1, 2005; Brooks King Casas et al.,“Getting to Know You,” Science, vol. 308 (April 1, 2005), pp.78–83; JZ e-mail interview with Peter Kirsch, Feb. 4, 2005; Peter Kirsch et al.,“Anticipation of Reward in a Nonaversive Differential Conditioning Paradigm and the Brain Reward System,” Neuro Image, vol. 20 (2003), pp. 1086–95.
[4] Mark Twain, Roughing It (Berkeley, Calif.: University of California Press, 1993), pp.258–70; Twain’s“The $30,000 Bequest” can be read in a handsome online edition at www2.hn.psu.edu/faculty/jmanis/twain/bequest.pdf. His financial fumbles are detailed in Justin Kaplan, Mr. Clemens and Mark Twain (New York: Touchstone, 1983).
[5] JZ participated in Knutson’s experiment in the cognitive neuroscience laboratory at Stanford University, May 26, 2004. See also Brian Knutson et al.,“Distributed Neural Representation of Expected Value,” JN, vol. 25, no. 19 (May 11, 2005), pp. 4806–12;Patricio O’Donnell et al.,“Modulation of Cell Firing in the Nucleus Accumbens,”ANYAS, vol. 877 (1999), pp. 157–75; Hans C. Breiter and Bruce R. Rosen,“Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging of Brain Reward Circuitry in the Human,” ANYAS,vol. 877 (1999), pp. 523–47; Hugo D. Critchley et al.,“Neural Activity in the Human Brain Relating to Uncertainty and Arousal During Anticipation,” Neuron, vol. 29(2001), pp. 537–45; Scott C. Matthews et al.,“Selective Activation of the Nucleus Accumbens During Risk-Taking Decision Making,” Neuro Report, vol. 15, no. 13(Sept. 15, 2004), pp. 2123–27.
[6] JZ telephone interview with Breiter, June 22, 2005; John P. O’Doherty et al.,“Neural Responses During Anticipation of a Primary Taste Reward,” Neuron, vol. 33 (Feb. 28,2002), pp. 815–26.
[7] Satoshi Ikemoto and Jaak Panksepp,“The Role of Nucleus Accumbens Dopamine in Motivated Behavior,” Brain Research Reviews, vol. 31 (1999), pp. 6–41; JZ telephone interview with Paul Slovic, Feb. 3, 2005.
[8] Michel de Montaigne,“How Our Mind Hinders Itself,” in The Complete Essays of Montaigne (Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press, 1965), p. 462 (this is an ancient literary device, used by Dante at the beginning of the fourth canto of Il Paradiso [ca. 1320] and by Aristotle in Book II, chapter 13 of his On the Heavens[ca. 360 B.C.]). John Barth, The Floating Opera and The End of the Road (New York:Doubleday, 1988), pp. 331–34.
[9] JZ e-mail interview with Taketoshi Ono, Feb. 15, 2005; Yutaka Komura et al.,“Retrospective and Prospective Coding for Predicted Reward in the Sensory Thalamus,” Nature, vol. 412 (Aug. 2, 2001), pp. 546–49; Emily Dickinson, poem 995(“This was in the White of the Year”), The Complete Poems of Emily Dickinson (New York: Little, Brown, 1960), pp. 462–463.
[10] JZ e-mail interviews with Rudolf Cardinal, Jan. 22, 2005, and Feb. 16, 2005; Rudolf N. Cardinal et al.,“Impulsive Choice Induced in Rats by Lesions of the Nucleus Accumbens Core,” Science, vol. 292 (June 29, 2001), pp. 2499–2501.
[11] Historical data on Celera’s stock price from Yahoo! Finance; www.celera.com/celera/pr_1056647999; www.ornl.gov/sci/techresources/Human_Genome/project/clinton2.shtml; http://archives.cnn.com/2000/HEALTH/06/26/human.genome.04/.
[12] JZ e-mail interview with Emrah Düzel, Feb. 8, 2005; Bianca C. Wittmann et al.,“Reward-Related fMRI Activation of Dopaminergic Midbrain ... ,” Neuron, vol. 45(Feb. 3, 2005), pp. 459–67; Brian Knutson and R. Alison Adcock,“Remembrance of Rewards Past,” Neuron, vol. 45 (Feb. 3, 2005), pp. 331–32; JZ telephone interview with Peter Shizgal, June 27, 2005.
[13] Paul E. M. Phillips et al.,“Subsecond Dopamine Release Promotes Cocaine Seeking,” Nature, vol. 422 (April 10, 2003), pp. 614–18; John N. J. Reynolds et al.,“A Cellular Mechanism of Reward-Related Learning,” Nature, vol. 413 (Sept. 6,2001), pp. 67–70; Fyodor Dostoyevsky, The Gambler (1866), chapter 17 (Constance Garnett translation).
[14] JZ e-mail interviews with Hiroyuki Nakahara, June 27 and 29, 2005; Michael L.Platt,“Caudate Clues to Rewarding Cues,” Neuron, vol. 33 (Jan. 31, 2002), pp.316–18; Johan Lauwereyns et al.,“Feature-Based Anticipation of Cues that Predict Reward in Monkey Caudate Nucleus,” Neuron, vol. 33 (Jan. 31, 2002), pp. 463–73;Johan Lauwereyns et al.,“A Neural Correlate of Response Bias in Monkey Caudate Neurons,” Nature, vol. 418 (July 25, 2002), pp. 413–17. Cisco stock performance:Bloomberg L.P. and Time Inc. Business Information Research Center.
[15] Brian Knutson et al.,“Distributed Neural Representation of Expected Value,” JN,vol. 25, no. 19 (May 11, 2005), pp. 4806–12; George F. Loewenstein et al.,“Risk as Feelings,” PB, vol. 127, no. 2 (2001), pp. 267–86; JZ telephone interview with Loewenstein, Jan. 26, 2005.
[16] JZ telephone interview with Mellers, Jan. 27, 2005; see also Barbara A. Mellers,“Choice and the Relative Pleasure of Consequences,” PB, vol. 126, no. 6 (2000),pp. 910–24; Hans C. Breiter et al.,“Functional Imaging of Neural Responses to Expectancy and Experience of Monetary Gains and Losses,” Neuron, vol. 30 (May 2001), pp. 619–39.
[17] Richard Dale, The First Crash (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2004), p.101; data on stock returns for 2000 through 2002 kindly provided to JZ by Aronson +Johnson + Ortiz, L.P.
[18] For a fuller list of jackpot jargon, see TII, p. 275.
[19] Howard Rachlin, The Science of Self-Control (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 2000), pp. 126–27; JZ telephone interview with Knutson, Feb. 2, 2005; www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/letters.html.