投资的怪圈

面对风险时，杏仁核会对负责感性情绪的那部分大脑施加强大影响力，像踩油门一样，让你的情绪变得更为强烈。幸运的是，你的大脑在负责理性思考的前额皮质的控制下，却能够像踩下刹车踏板一样，让你的情绪演变速度慢下来，直到你变得足够冷静，做出更客观的决定。最好的投资者会养成一种习惯，即事先制订好计划，这样有助于抑制情绪大脑的强烈反应。下面有一些技巧可以帮助你在面对恐惧时保持冷静。

➢把恐惧抛诸脑后。[25]除非你退后一步，放松一下，否则你永远不会有镇定的头脑来考虑如何应对已经恶化的风险。旧金山49人队（San Francisco 49ers）优秀的四分卫乔·蒙塔纳（Joe Montana）完全理解这一点。在1989年的“超级碗”比赛中，在距离比赛结束还剩下3分钟时，旧金山49人队以3分的劣势落后于辛辛那提猛虎队（Cincinnati Bengals），只剩下92码的距离可以用于进攻了，这差不多相当于整个球场的长度。身处进攻截锋位置的哈里斯·巴顿（Harris Barton）担心得“发狂”，但是四分卫蒙塔纳对巴顿说：“嘿，你看那边的看台，约翰·坎迪（John Candy）在出口坡道旁边站着呢。”球员们都转过头去看这位著名的喜剧演员，这让他们分散了精力，让他们的大脑摆脱压力，在关键时刻赢得了比赛。当你被风险压倒时，也不妨给自己创造一个“约翰·坎迪时刻”。为了缓解焦虑，你可以去散散步，去健身房，给朋友打电话，或者陪孩子们一起玩。

➢用自己的语言去描述风险。[26]生动的情景和声音会刺激你大脑中的反射系统，影响你的情绪，而较为复杂的语言会刺激你的前额皮质和大脑的反思系统。使用自己的语言去描述风险，可以帮你抵消市场向你抛出的一连串图像，你可以用更冷静的视角看待最紧迫的风险。20世纪60年代，伯克利大学的心理学家理查德·拉扎勒斯（Richard Lazarus）发现，播放一部割礼仪式的影片，会立即引起大多数观众的反感，但如果在介绍这段录像时配上一段文字解说，宣布割礼过程并不像看上去那么痛苦，这种反感可能会在一定程度上被削弱。与那些没有听到文字解说的观众相比，听到文字解说的观众心率更低，出汗更少，焦虑感也更少。（顺便说一句，尽管文字解说的内容并不是真的，却还是发挥作用了。）

心理学家詹姆斯·格罗斯（James Gross）向观众展示了一些恶心的电影片段，其中有烧伤患者正在接受治疗，还有一只手臂被截肢的特写镜头。他发现，如果观众事先得到了书面说明，就更有可能采取一种超然和冷静的态度去观看这种影片，不会感到那么反感。

正如我们所了解的那样，如果你看到一张恐怖面孔的照片，你的杏仁核就会活跃起来，还会心跳加速，呼吸加快，手心出汗。[27]但是，如果你看到一张被愤怒或恐惧等字眼包围的恐怖面孔的照片，杏仁核的活动就会受到抑制，你身体的报警反应也会受到抑制。当前额皮质受到刺激而开始发挥作用时，试图判断这个词有多准确地描述了照片情况的思维会抑制你最初的恐惧反射。

综上所述，这些发现表明，语言信息可以像一层湿毯一样盖在杏仁核上，过滤它对短暂输入的强烈反应。这就是为什么每当坏消息来袭时，用你自己的语言去思考一项投资决策具有非常重要的意义。当然，之前看似很好的投资可能会在短时间内变得一文不值，当安然和世通这样的股票开始暴跌时，再对它们进行分析和思考就不划算了，及早抛售是明智之举。但瞬间彻底崩盘的股票是少数，更为常见的情况是，成千上万的股票不过遭受暂时的下跌，在这些情况下，过早抛售往往是最糟糕的事情。为了防止感性情绪压倒事实，你要学会使用自己的语言问一下诸如这样的问题：

• 除了价格，还有什么变化？

• 我当初投资的理由还站得住脚吗？

• 我之前喜欢这项投资，愿意出更高的价格买入，现在价格更低了，难道我不应该更喜欢它吗？

• 我还需要其他什么证据来判断这是不是坏消息？

• 这只股票之前有过这么大跌幅吗？如果有过，那么当时是卖出比较好，还是增持比较好？

➢追踪自己的情绪。[28]在第五章，我们了解了撰写投资日记的重要性。你应该考虑做到神经学家安托万·贝沙拉所说的“情绪登记”（emotional registry），记录情绪的起伏，以及自己投资情况的起伏。在市场处于高峰和低谷时，回头阅读自己之前在类似时期的记录。你自己的情绪记录很可能会告诉你，当价格（和风险）上涨时，你往往会变得过于乐观，而当价格（和风险）下跌时，你会陷入绝望。所以，你需要训练自己把投资情绪颠倒过来。世界上许多最优秀的投资者都将自己的情绪视为反向指标：兴奋是一个风险信号，表明是时候考虑卖出了，而恐惧则告诉自己或许是时候买进了。我曾经问过先后供职于富达麦哲伦基金和美盛集团的知名基金经理布莱恩·波斯纳（Brian Posner）一个问题，即他如何判断一只股票能否挣钱。他回答说：“如果它让我觉得想抛出，我可以非常肯定这是一项伟大的投资。”同样，戴维斯基金的克里斯托弗·戴维斯也学会了在害怕得要死的时候进行投资。他解释说：“如果感知到了较高的风险，可以通过压低价格来降低实际风险。我们喜欢市场上的悲观情绪带来的低价。”

➢避免从众心理。[29] 20世纪60年代，心理学家斯坦利·米尔格拉姆（Stanley Milgram）进行了一系列令人震惊的实验。假设你在他的实验室里，每小时有4美元的报酬（相当于今天的27美元），担任一名“教师”，帮助“学生”参与一个简单的记忆测试。如果“学生”回答错误，就要受到惩罚。你坐在一台有30个拨动开关的机器前面，开关上的标签从15伏的“轻微电击”升级到375伏的“危险：严重电击”，最高是450伏，用XXX这个不祥的符号来标记。“学生”坐在你只闻其声不见其人的地方，每当“学生”答错一个问题，实验室主管就会指示你按下一个开关，施加电压更高的电击。如果你对增加电压犹豫不决，实验室主管会礼貌而坚定地指示你继续。最初的几次冲击是无害的，当电压达到75伏时，“学生”会发出咕噜声。米尔格拉姆写道：“在120伏的电压下，‘学生’会口头抱怨；电压达到150伏时，他要求退出实验。随着电压升级，他的抗议一直继续，变得越来越激烈和情绪化……在180伏的电压下，受害者大叫 ‘我无法忍受疼痛’……电压达到285伏时，他的反应只能用痛苦的尖叫来形容。”

如果你是米尔格拉姆聘请的一位“教师”，你会怎么做？他在实验室外对100多人进行了调查，描述了实验过程，并询问他们认为什么时候会停止电击。平均来说，这些受访者表示自己会在120~135伏停止电击。没有人预测说会在电压超过300伏后继续。

然而，在米尔格拉姆的实验室里，所有“教师”都置“学生”的痛苦呻吟于不顾，施加了高达135伏特的电击。尽管“学生”痛苦地尖叫，80%的人还是受到了高达285伏的电击，62%的人甚至受到了450伏的最高级别的电击。米尔格拉姆悲伤地写道，由于涉及自己是否能拿到报酬，而且担心会冒犯实验室里的权威人物（即实验室主管），所以那些“教师”们往往麻木地、习惯性地按照别人的要求去做。（顺便说一下，在这一系列实验中，所谓的“学生”其实是事先受过训练的人扮演的，只是假装被电流电击而发出相应的反应。米尔格拉姆的机器是假的，不会真的造成电击伤害。）

米尔格拉姆发现了两种打破这种“服从链条”的方法。一种是“同伴反抗”（peer rebellion）：米尔格拉姆付钱给两个人，让他们作为额外的“教师”加入实验，事先告诉他们拒绝施加超过210伏的电击，看到同为“教师”的同伴停止了电击，大多数担任“教师”的人也会壮着胆子想要停止电击。米尔格拉姆的第二个解决办法是“权威人士发生分歧”（disagreement between authorities）：他增加了一个实验室主管，同第一个主管一起监督实验，如果第二个主管说没有必要再提高电压，那么基本上所有人都会立即停止电击。

米尔格拉姆的研究成果告诉了我们如何抵御群体的吸引力，即如何抵御从众心理。下面一些建议可供参考。

• 在进入互联网聊天室或与同事开会之前，写下你对正在考虑的投资的看法：它是好是坏，它值多少钱，以及这些看法的理由。尽可能具体一些，并与你尊重的、不属于同一个群体的人分享你的结论。（这样，你便知道会有另外一个人留意你是否会为了迎合群体而改变自己的观点。）

• 把你所在的群体之前达成的共识传达给你尊重的、不属于同一群体的人。向这个人至少提出下面这三个问题：这个共识听起来合理吗？他们的论据合理吗？如果你处在我的位置，在做出这样的决定之前，你还想知道什么？

• 如果你是投资机构的一员，任命一名内部分析师充当自己的“狙击手”。你这位“狙击手”分析师的奖金在部分程度上取决于他能否决别人都喜欢的观点的次数。（不要让同一个人在不同的会议上充当你的“狙击手”，以防止他沦落到普遍不受人欢迎的地步。）

• 通用汽车的传奇董事长小阿尔弗雷德·斯隆（Alfred P. SloanJr.）曾经以这种方式忽然宣布休会：“先生们，我认为我们都完全同意这个决定……那么，我建议我们推迟到下次会议再对这个问题做进一步讨论，以便给我们留出一些时间看看是否会产生分歧，也许那时我们对这个决定会有更多的了解。”[30]同伴压力会给你造成心理学家欧文·詹尼斯（Irving Janis）所说的“模糊预感”（vague foreboding），导致你害怕表达出自己的真实想法。但如果同一群人找一个大家都喜欢的酒吧，放松心情，一边喝酒，一边聊天，就可以缓解压抑情绪，让你更自信地表达不同意见。这时，你可以事先指定一个人帮你关注其他人喝酒时自由发表的意见。根据罗马历史学家塔西佗的说法，古代德国人相信喝酒能帮助他们展示内心最隐秘的活动和目的，所以他们会对自己的重要决定进行两次评估，第一次是喝醉时，第二次是清醒时。

[1] Bertrand Russell,“An Outline of Intellectual Rubbish” (1943), www.solstice.us/russell/intellectual_rubbish.html.

[2] Mark Peplow,“Counting the Dead,” Nature, vol. 440 (April 20, 2006), pp. 982–83;Dillwyn Williams and Keith Baverstock,“Too Soon for a Final Diagnosis,” Nature,vol. 440 (April 20, 2006), pp. 993–94; www.nature.com/news/2005/050905/full/437181b.html; www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2005/pr38/en/index.html;seer.cancer.gov/statfacts/html/melan.html. Roughly 4,000 cases of thyroid cancer resulted from the Chernobyl accident; so far, 15 have been fatal. While the U.N.’s worst-case estimate is that more than 9,000 people may eventually die as a result of Chernobyl, nearly all the potential victims remain alive two decades after the accident.

[3] NYT, Nov. 12, 2002, p. F4; www.flmnh.ufl.edu/fish/sharks/attacks/relariskanimal.htm; Ricky L. Langley,“Alligator Attacks on Humans in the United States,” Wilderness and Environmental Medicine, vol.16 (2005), pp. 119–24; www.natural-resources.wsu.edu/research/bear-center/bear-people.htm; www.cdc.gov/nasd; World Report on Violence and Health (U.N. World Health Organization, 2002), www.who.int/violence_injury_prevention/violence/world_report/en/, p. 10. United Nations Devel- opment Programme,“The Human Consequences of the Chernobyl Nuclear Accident” (UNDP and UNICEF, Jan. 25, 2002), www.undp.org; Douglas Chapin et al.,“Nuclear Power Plants and Their Fuel as Terrorist Targets,” Science, vol. 297 (Sept. 20, 2002), pp.1997–99. These data are for calendar year 2000, but even the war in Iraq has not changed the numbers enough to alter the order they are listed in.

[4] John Ameriks et al.,“Expectations for Retirement,” Vanguard Center for Retirement Research (Nov. 2004), pp. 12–14.

[5] JZ,“When the Stock Market Plunges, Will You Be Brave or Will You Cave?” MM,Jan. 1997, p. 106.

[6] Paul Slovic,“Informing and Educating the Public about Risk,” RA, vol. 6, no. 4(1986), pp. 403–15; www.planecrashinfo.com/cause.htm; Kukoc: Sports Illustrated,Feb. 24, 1997, p. 46; National Transportation Statistics 2005 (U.S. Departmentof Transportation), table 2-1, www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_statistics/2005/index.html; Michael Sivak and Michael J. Flannagan,“Flying and Driving after the September 11th Attacks,” American Scientist, Jan.–Feb. 2003, http://americanscientist.org/template/AssetDetail/assetid/16237; Gerd Gigerenzer,“Out of the Frying Pan into the Fire,” RA, vol. 26, no. 2 (2006), pp. 347–51.

[7] Eric J. Johnson et al.,“Framing, Probability Distortions, and Insurance Decisions,” in CVF, pp. 224–40.

[8] Consumer confidence data courtesy of the Conference Board’s Carol Courter, e-mail to JZ, March 14, 2006. Eric J. Johnson and Amos Tversky,“Affect, Generalization,and the Perception of Risk,” JPSP, vol. 45, no. 1 (1983), pp. 20–31; JZ e-mail interview with Eric Johnson, Feb. 14, 2006.

[9] Sarah Lichtenstein et al.,“Judged Frequency of Lethal Events,” JEPHLM, vol. 4, no.6 (Nov. 1978), pp. 551–78; Paul Slovic,“Perception of Risk,” Science, vol. 236 (April 17, 1987), pp. 280–85; JZ interview with Paul Slovic and Ellen Peters, June 29, 2005.Besides dread and knowability, there is a third factor — how many people are exposed to the risk — but it appears to play a less significant role.

[10] www.floodsmart.gov; Mark J. Browne and Robert E. Hoyt,“The Demand for Flood Insurance,” JRU, vol. 20, no. 3 (2000), pp. 291–300; Howard Kunreuther,“Has the Time Come for Comprehensive Natural Disaster Insurance?” in Ronald J. Daniels et al., On Risk and Disaster (Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2006), pp.175–202.

[11] Press release, Wendy’s International Inc., July 7, 2005; Wendy’s 10-Q report, Aug.11, 2005; www.cnn.com/2005/LAW/09/09/wendys.finger.ap; stock data from http://finance.yahoo.com; Patricia Sellers,“eBay’s Secret,” Fortune, Oct. 18, 2004, p. 160;www.forbes.com/forbes/1999/0726/6402238a.html.

[12] Antonio Damasio, Descartes’ Error (New York: Penguin, 1994); Joseph LeDoux,The Emotional Brain (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1996); Andrew J. Calder et al.,“Neuropsychology of Fear and Loathing,” NRN, vol. 2 (May, 2001), pp. 352–63;K. Luan Phan et al.,“Functional Neuroanatomy of Emotion,” Neuro Image, vol.16 (2002), pp. 331–48; M. Davis and P. J. Whalen,“The Amygdala,” Molecular Psychiatry, vol. 6 (2001), pp. 13–34; Nathan J. Emery and David G. Amaral,“The Role of the Amygdala in Primate Social Cognition,” in CNE, pp. 156–91; JZ interview with Antoine Bechara, April 2, 2002; D. Caroline Blanchard and Robert J.Blanchard,“Innate and Conditioned Reactions to Threat in Rats with Amygdaloid Lesions,” Journal of Comparative and Physiological Psychology, vol. 81, no. 2(1972), pp. 281–90.

[13] Paul J. Whalen et al.,“Masked Presentation of Emotional Facial Expressions Modulate Amygdala Activity without Explicit Knowledge,” JN, vol. 18, no. 1 (Jan.1, 1998), pp. 411–18; Beatrice de Gelder,“Towards the Neurobiology of Emotional Body Language,” NRN, vol. 7(March, 2006), pp. 242–49; Beatrice de Gelder et al.,“Fear Fosters Flight,”PNAS, vol. 101, no. 47 (Nov. 23, 2004), pp. 16701–706.

[14] N. Isenberg et al.,“Linguistic Threat Activates the Human Amygdala,” PNAS, vol.96 (Aug., 1999), pp. 10456–459; Laetitia Silvert et al.,“Autonomic Responding to Aversive Words without Conscious Valence Discrimination,” International Journal of Psychophysiology, vol. 53 (2004), pp. 135–45; Elizabeth L. Loftus and John C.Palmer,“Reconstruction of Automobile Destruction,” Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior, vol. 13 (1974), pp. 585–9. A normal eyeblink lasts about 320 milliseconds (e-mail to JZ from SUNY Stony Brook neurobiologist Craig Evinger,Mar. 23, 2006).

[15] Tiziana Zalla et al.,“Differential Amygdala Responses to Winning and Losing,”EJN, vol. 12 (2000), pp. 1764–70; JZ interview with Grafman, March 6, 2002; Hans C. Breiter et al.,“Functional Imaging of Neural Responses to Expectancy and Experience of Monetary Gains and Losses,” Neuron, vol. 30 (May 2001), pp.619–39; Gleb P. Shumyatsky et al.,“Stathmin, a Gene Enriched in the Amygdala,Controls Both Learned and Innate Fear,” Cell, vol. 123 (Nov. 18, 2005), pp.697–709; R. Douglas Fields,“Making Memories Stick,” SA, Feb. 2005, pp. 75–81;Karim Nader et al.,“Fear Memories Require Protein Synthesis in the Amygdala for Reconsolidation after Retrieval,” Nature, vol. 406 (Aug. 17, 2000), pp. 722–26;James L. McGaugh,“Memory — a Century of Consolidation,” Science, vol. 287 (Jan.14, 2000), pp. 248–51; B. A. Strange and R. J. Dolan,“ß-Adrenergic Modulation of Emotional Memory-Evoked Human Amygdala and Hippocampal Responses,” PNAS,vol. 101, no. 31 (Aug. 3, 2004), pp. 11454–58; James L. McGaugh et al.,“Modulation of Memory Storage by Stress Hormones and the Amygdaloid Complex,” in Michael S. Gazzaniga, ed., The New Cognitive Neurosciences (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press,2000), pp. 1081–98; Joe Guillaume Pelletier et al.,“Lasting Increases in Basolateral Amygdala Activity After Emotional Arousal,” Learning & Memory, vol. 12 (2005),pp. 96–102; Rebecca Elliott et al.,“Dissociable Neural Responses in Human Reward Systems,” JN, vol. 20, no. 16 (Aug. 15, 2000), pp. 6159–65.“Adrenaline” is the common term for epinephrine.

[16] 2005 Investment Company Fact Book (Washington, D.C.: Investment Company Institute, 2005), p. 77; 1996 Mutual Fund Fact Book (Washington, D.C.: Investment Company Institute, 1996), p. 125; Donald B. Keim and Ananth Madhavan,“The Relation Between Stock Market Movements and NYSE Seat Prices,” JF, vol. 55,no. 6 (Dec. 2000), pp. 2817–40; William James, The Principles of Psychology (New York: Henry Holt, 1890, reprinted Dover Press, 1950), vol. 1, p. 670. (Italics in original.)

[17] JZ participated in the Iowa Gambling Task (and interviewed Antoine Bechara and Antonio Damasio) at the University of Iowa, April 2, 2002. The experiment is also described in Antonio Damasio, Descartes’ Error (New York: Avon, 1994), pp.212–22; Antonio R. Damasio,“The Somatic Marker Hypothesis and the Possible Functions of the Prefrontal Cortex,” PTRSLB, vol. 351 (1996), pp. 1413–20; Antoine Bechara et al.,“Different Contributions of the Human Amygdala and Ventromedial Prefrontal Cortex to Decision-Making,” JN, vol. 19, no. 13 (July 1, 1999), pp. 5473–81; Antoine Bechara et al.,“The Somatic Marker Hypothesis and Decision-Making,”in Jordan Grafman, ed., Handbook of Neuropsychology (London: Elsevier, 2002), pp. 117–43. For a divergent view, see Alan G. Sanfey and Jonathan D. Cohen,“Is Knowing Always Feeling?” PNAS, vol. 101, no. 48 (Nov. 30, 2004), pp. 16709–10,and Tiago V. Maia and James L. McClelland,“A Reexamination of the Evidence for the Somatic Marker Hypothesis,” PNAS, vol. 101, no. 45 (Nov. 9, 2004), pp.16075–80.

[18] Baba Shiv et al.,“Investment Behavior and the Negative Side of Emotion,” PS, vol.16, no. 6 (2005), pp. 435–39.

[19] Luc-Alain Giraldeau,“The Ecology of Information Use,” in John R. Krebs and Nicholas B. Davies, Behavioural Ecology (Oxford: Blackwell, 1997), pp. 42–68;Isabelle Coolen et al.,“Species Difference in Adaptive Use of Public Information in Sticklebacks,” PRSLB, vol. 270, no. 1531 (Nov. 22, 2003), pp. 2413–19; Theodore Stankowich and Daniel T. Blumstein,“Fear in Animals,” PRSLB, vol. 272, no. 1581(Dec. 22, 2005), pp. 2627–34; JZ e-mail interview with Blumstein, March 6, 2006.The science and mathematical laws of herding are explored in depth in Luc-Alain Giraldeau and Thomas Caraco, Social Foraging Theory (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2000).

[20] Gregory S. Berns et al.,“Neurobiological Correlates of Social Conformity and Independence during Mental Rotation,” BP, vol. 58 (2005), pp. 245–53; Jaak Panksepp,“Feeling the Pain of Social Loss,” Science, vol. 302 (Oct. 10, 2003), pp.237–39; Naomi I. Eisenberger et al.,“Does Rejection Hurt?” Science, vol. 302 (Oct.10, 2003), pp. 290–92.

[21] Uri Hasson et al.,“Intersubject Synchronization of Cortical Activity During Natural Vision,” Science, vol. 303 (March 12, 2004), pp. 1634–40; Luiz Pessoa,“Seeing the World in the Same Way,” Science, vol. 303 (March 12, 2004), pp. 1617–18.

[22] Ellsberg’s biography and his classic article“Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms” (QJE, vol. 75, no. 4 [Nov. 1961], pp. 643–69) are available at www.ellsberg.net. The Ellsberg Paradox has been replicated in many subsequent experiments; see Colin Camerer and Martin Weber,“Recent Developments in Modeling Preferences,”JRU, vol. 5 (1992), pp. 325–70, and Catrin Rode et al.,“When and Why Do People Avoid Unknown Probabilities in Decisions Under Uncertainty?,” Cognition, vol. 72(1999), pp. 269–304. Rumsfeld remarks: Department of Defense news briefing, Feb.12, 2002, www.defenselink.mil/transcripts/2002/t02122002_t212sdv2.html.

[23] Aldo Rustichini,“Emotion and Reason in Making Decisions,” Science, vol. 310(Dec. 9, 2005), pp. 1624–25; Ming Hsu et al.,“Neural Systems Responding to Degrees of Uncertainty in Human Decision-Making,” Science, vol. 310 (Dec. 9,2005), pp. 1680–83. (The frontal lobe is also involved: Scott A. Huettel et al.,“Neural Signatures of Economic Preferences for Risk and Ambiguity,” Neuron, vol. 49 [March 2, 2006], pp. 765–75.) Not knowing what the odds are is very different from knowing that the odds are low; as we saw in Chapter Three, nothing is quite as thrilling as a long-shot gamble on a big jackpot. When the probabilities of winning are remote,many people prefer an ambiguous over a certain gamble; see Hillel J. Einhorn and Robin M. Hogarth,“Decision Making Under Ambiguity,” JB, vol. 59, no. 4, pt. 2(1986, pp. S225–S250).

[24] Michael J. Brennan,“The Individual Investor,” Journal of Financial Research,vol. 18, no. 1 (1995), pp. 59–74; Robert A. Olsen and George H. Troughton,“Are Risk Premium Anomalies Caused by Ambiguity?” FAJ, vol. 56, no. 2 (March–April 2000), pp. 24–31; Thomas K. Philips,“The Source of Value,” JPM, vol. 28,no. 4 (2002), pp. 36–44; Brad Barber et al.,“Reassessing the Returns to Analysts’Stock Recommendations,” FAJ, vol. 59, no. 2 (March–April 2003), pp. 88–96; John A.Doukas et al.,“Divergent Opinions and the Performance of Value Stocks,” FAJ,vol. 60, no. 6 (Nov.–Dec. 2004), pp. 55–64; Eugene F. Fama and Kenneth R. French,“The Anatomy of Value and Growth Stock Returns” (Sept. 2005), http://ssrn.com/abstract=806664.

[25] Paul Zimmerman,“The Ultimate Winner,” Sports Illustrated, Aug. 13, 1990, pp.72–83; Larry Schwartz,“No Ordinary Joe,” http://espn.go.com/classic/biography/s/Montana_Joe.html.

[26] James J. Gross,“Antecedent- and Response-Focused Emotion Regulation,” JPSP,vol. 74, no. 1 (1998), pp. 224–37.

[27] JZ e-mail interview with Ahmad Hariri, April 14, 2005; Ahmad R. Hariri et al.,“Modulating Emotional Responses,” Neuro Report, vol. 11, no. 1 (Jan. 2000), pp.43–48; Ahmad R. Hariri et al.,“Neocortical Modulation of the Amygdala Response to Fearful Stimuli,” BP, vol. 53 (2003), pp. 494–501; Kezia Lange et al.,“Task Instructions Modulate Neural Responses to Fearful Facial Expressions,” BP, vol. 53(2003), pp. 226–32; Florin Dolcos and Gregory McCarthy,“Brain Systems Mediating Cognitive Interference by Emotional Distraction,” JN, vol. 26, no. 7 (Feb. 15, 2006),pp. 2072–79.

[28] JZ interview with Antoine Bechara, April 2, 2002; JZ,“What’s Eating You,” MM,Dec. 2001, pp. 63–64; Beverly Goodman,“Family Tradition,” Smart Money, March 2006, pp. 64–67; JZ e-mail interview with Davis, June 27, 2006.

[29] Stanley Milgram, Obedience to Authority (New York: Harper & Row, 1974), pp. 4,23, 107, 117–19, 123.

[30] Irving L. Janis, Groupthink (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1982), p. 271; Tacitus,Germania, www.fordham.edu/HALSALL/basis/tacitus-germanygord.html.