投资的怪圈

也许时间并不能治愈所有的伤痛，但大多数投资上的伤痛不会留下永久的伤疤。[43]总的来说，我们在减少懊悔方面做得比我们意识到的要好得多。这可能需要一段时间，但人们会适应和调整，并想方设法继续前行。即使是一直不变的投资，如果持有的时间足够长，也能赚钱，而且只需要有一只大涨的股票，就能弥补其他多个投资的损失。一个奇怪的悖论是，对懊悔的预期往往比真正经历懊悔更伤人。因此，对投资者伤害更大的并不是真正经历的风险，而是他们总是试图逃避预期可能导致懊悔的风险。人们倾向于避免采取以后可能带来伤害的行动，哈佛大学心理学家丹尼尔·吉尔伯特（Daniel Gilbert）认为这相当于“购买实际上并不需要的情感保险”。

在投资中，有两种基本的错误。第一种是瞬间的、令人愤怒的：你买了，价格下跌；或者你卖了，价格飙升。你马上就知道你做错了什么，然后你马上就开始自怨自艾。第二种错误一开始并不明显。当你躺在沙滩上时，没有任何一个时刻你能看到你的皮肤从健康的古铜色变成痛苦的、晒伤后的红色。晒伤过程发生得如此缓慢，以至这种转变是看不见的。投资失误往往就像晒伤一样：它源于健忘、粗心大意，或者一直浑然不觉地做可能带来不利结果的事情。但事实是它看似没有错，却可能带来严重后果，导致你很懊悔做了这件事。

越是你自己的选择导致某个结果，你就越容易想象自己如果做一些不同的事情就好了，你的懊悔越深。所以，只要可能，尽量少做。你不应该武断地做出一个判断，而是应该遵循既定的策略和程序，让你的投资决策处于“自动驾驶”状态，让你的投资组合受制于你的投资准则。1995年，我开着岳父的车超速行驶，被开了一张罚单，我感到非常羞愧，发誓再也不超速了。从那以后，每当我进入高速公路，就会注意限速标志，设置导航仪，消除所有的担心，以免因为粗心大意或情绪化而最终超速。康奈尔大学的心理学家托马斯·基洛维奇说：“你越能让自己的投资决策过程实现自动化运作，就越容易控制自己的情绪。”下面有几种形式的投资决策控制方法，以及其他一些神经经济学方面的经验。

➢面对现实，承认失败。[44]在这一章的开头，我们探讨了丹·罗伯逊的情况，他在科技股上的损失让他感觉自己像一只“雨中的狗”，但他没有一蹶不振。起初，他和他的合作伙伴史蒂夫·舒洛（Steve Schullo）否认了他们的损失。然而，等到大约40%的钱都花光了，他们就强迫自己面对痛苦。罗伯逊说：“当你把你的想法说出来的时候，就把问题摆上了台面，就在某种程度上改变了它的本质，进而可以改变你的行为。”罗伯逊觉得他们必须在剩下的钱消失之前采取行动。他说：“我一直在问，我们是损失了，但得到教训了吗？既然我们没有利用市场高位来还清债务，为何不吸取这一教训呢？”罗伯逊和舒洛放弃了他们现在才意识到自己从一开始就不了解的所有高科技投资，用这些收益来偿还抵押贷款，建立了一个由保守型股票、债券和指数共同基金组成的新投资组合。他们的金融资产曾高达146万美元，也曾低至46.8万美元。

那么，要治愈一个瘫痪的投资组合的最好方法之一就是和你信任的人讨论一下情况。朋友、父母、配偶或合作伙伴可以帮助你抛开羞耻和自责。你不应该仅仅因为一项投资下跌了就卖掉它，但是如果突然下跌让你意识到自己从来都不知道自己在做什么，那就好好谈谈吧。为了从错误中吸取教训，你必须首先承认你犯了错误。大声说出来比在私下里自责要健康得多。

➢制定排除某些投资的规则。[45]在2006年，你很容易因为没有在油价飙升之前把所有的钱都投入能源股而对自己感到愤怒，会情不自禁地说：“我早知道会涨！”但如果你当时遵守了排除一些投资的规则，以后就不太可能懊悔了。坚持一些简单的规则，告诉自己为什么不买，你回过头来看时，你会说：“我没有把所有的钱投资于能源股，因为那样的话，我就违反了自己的投资原则。那样感觉不好，迟早要出错。”这样一来，你就会觉得冲动决定与正常行为有很大不同，就不太可能因为没有冲动行事而懊悔。（关于排除某些投资的规则清单，详见附录2。）

➢找人帮你卖掉亏本投资。主动放弃一笔没希望赢利的投资并非易事，所以，你可能需要习惯于找人帮你卖掉亏本投资的想法。如果你用自己的语言重新审视了最初选择这笔投资的理由（参见第七章“用自己的语言去描述风险”），并得出结论认为这笔投资确实是一个错误，但你仍然无法下决心摆脱它，那么你需要找人推动你去做这件事。庞培法布拉大学的心理学家罗宾·霍加斯建议，将交易账户的登录密码改为“dumpmylosers”（意为“卖掉赔钱的东西”）。每次检查账户时，你都要输入这个密码，相当于提醒自己一次，如此下去，反复多次，卖掉赔钱的东西将成为你的“第二天性”，当你内心真正接受这一理念之后，那么在需要采取行动的时候，你就感到比较轻松舒服。

作家、工程师和平面设计师都知道，发现错误的最好方法是让别人检查自己的作品。一些资金管理公司规定，每笔投资都必须由买家以外的人进行审核。银行可以通过让最初授权的高管以外的人重新评估贷款，以便减少损失。如果你不是犯错的那个人，承认投资错误就容易得多。所以，只要有可能，就听听别人的意见。

➢卖出失败投资，寻找一线希望。[46]卖出失败投资的逻辑非常清楚：你之前为一项投资付出了多少，不应决定你是否要卖出。如果你认为一只股票的真实价值高于当前价格，那就应该继续持有。如果你认为它的当前价格高于真实价值，就应该卖掉它。如果你迫切需要现金，当然也可以出售。但你之前花了多少钱，则不是要考虑的事情。然而，加州大学伯克利分校经济学家特伦斯·奥迪安表示：“对大多数人来说，卖出股票的决定更多地取决于股票之前的表现，而不是它未来可能的走势。”

那是因为感情压倒理智。懊悔让人们把注意力集中在已经改变的东西上（股票价格），而不去分析什么没有改变（股票背后的企业价值）。一项针对个人投资者的调查发现，只有17%的人认为买股票比卖股票难。然而，62%的人花在买入决策上的时间比花在卖出决策上的时间要多。人们非常清楚，要做出一个好的卖出决策，需要付出更多的精力和思考，因此，人们才会把问题搁置起来不再考虑。

不要把你亏损的投资看成负债，而要看成资产，这种视角对你是有好处的。税损结转是美国税法给个人留下的一大福利，颇有吸引力。根据美国税法，投资者出现亏损可以申报抵税，每年上限为3000美元。按美国个人最高税率35%计算，可以减税1050美元。如果你让损失一直持续下去，这对你没有任何价值。相反，如果你及时卖出止损，那么你就能获得一笔现金，可以把它投入其他地方，此外，你的亏损还可以削减税单。当你卖出时，你把账面损失变成了实际损失，并从政府那里得到了一份真正有价值的税收优惠。每年，你可以使用高达3000美元的亏损额度来抵消你的资本收益及其他应税收入。（在税损结转之前，请咨询税务专家，并访问税务局的网站，www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/p544.pdf。）

卖出股票后，不要再关注它是否立刻反弹。正如T2合伙公司（T2 Partners）的基金经理惠特尼·蒂尔森（Whitney Tilson）喜欢说的那样：“你不必以赔钱的方式把钱赚回来。”如果投资某只股票或基金真的是一个错误，你应该把它处理掉，找到更好的投资方式。如果卖出带来的感觉跟买入带来的感觉一样，那么你卖出的决策可能是正确的，实施起来可能会更轻松。首先，找到另一只你想持有的股票或基金，确保你在“投资清单”的帮助下去寻找。你手头有现金吗？如果没有，告诉自己，为这个潜在的盈利股融资的最简单方法就是甩掉一只赔钱股。

另一种有利于促使你卖出赔钱股的方法是不要把资金投入完全不同类型的股票上。心理学家给受试者各种各样的小饰品、糖果、蜡笔和铅笔，如果有谁愿意用自己的某个东西去和别人交换不同的东西，就能得到5美分。结果发现，他们更愿意拿相同的东西来交换（比如，蜡笔换蜡笔），而不是拿不同的东西交换（比如，蜡笔换糖果）。所以，如果你不确定自己是否能找到更好的投资对象，那就投资与你刚刚卖出的类型相似的股票。这样你就不会觉得自己会被别人甩在后面，也不会觉得自己正陷入未知境遇之中。比如，如果你担心戴尔电脑公司的股票可能会在你亏本卖出后又出现大幅上涨，你可以卖掉它，把收益投资于惠普等类似的股票，或者更好的做法是投资于电脑股的交易所交易基金（ETF）。

➢合理止损，不要亏太多。[47]股市专家经常建议你使用止损指令，这是一种提前指令，指示你的经纪人在股票跌破一定价格时自动卖出。但如果你将止损线设置得太接近于当前价格，就容易不断卖出那些只是短期下跌却长期看涨的好股票。每次卖出止损，你的经纪人就会得到一笔佣金，而且你可能懊悔地看到股价在你卖出后立刻回升。一些专家建议将止损线设定在当前价格的5%，这真是太疯狂了。除非你是短线操盘手，否则将止损线设置在当前价格的25%都显得太高了。你要清楚一点：你的目标是增加你自己的财富，而不是让你的股票经纪人多赚点佣金。

另一种方法是提前设定“自动审视线”，即当估价跌到这条线的时候，你要重新审视最初投资这只股票的理由是否依然存在。比如，如果你以每股50美元的价格买入一只股票，你可以在每股价格分别跌至45美元（亏损10%）、40美元（亏损20%）和37.50美元（亏损25%）的时候进行新一轮的审视。你不应该因为股票下跌而迅速抛售，而是只有当你的研究告诉你这个公司的基本面出问题时，才考虑卖出。在考虑要不要卖出时，你不妨问自己以下三个问题：

• 如果我尚未持有这只股票，我愿意以这个价格买入吗？

• 如果我不知道这家公司的股票价格是多少，还愿意入股这家公司吗？

• 既然现在股票更便宜了，我的安全边界不是更大了吗？

➢让自己的惰性发挥作用。[48]如果你很难攒钱，就把你的“意外之财”储蓄起来。数以百万计的美国人选择让国税局把联邦所得税退税自动存入自己的储蓄账户，而这笔退款到账后，大多数人会将其花掉。相反，如果这笔钱直接退入一个投资账户，你在投资方面的惰性几乎肯定会导致你把钱留在里面，而且这样应该会比存在银行获得更高的收益。大多数大型基金公司都可以向你提供银行路由号码和账户号码，以便让国税局把退税直接存入你的账户。如果你已经在基金公司有了个人退休账户，你可以每年用退税来增加里面的金额。通过让这个过程处于“自动”状态，你将永远不会错过这笔钱，也不至于抵御不住各种诱惑而把钱花掉。

➢不要持有太多现金。身为华尔街金融家的X先生把1亿美元奖金投到了收益率偏低却较为稳定的货币市场基金上，看着资金一天天缩水，他现在感到非常懊悔，想投到收益率较高的股票上，但他又担心进入股市之后遭遇大跌。你可以采用一种“平均成本”的投资计划，长期、分步、自动地进行投资，从而避免投资组合瘫痪。这是分摊风险、掌控意外之财的最好方法。

➢评估盈利时，改变你的参考框架。[49]如果一项投资在两天内暴跌25%，这的确是可怕的，尤其是你在股市网站上看到“跌跌不休”、抛盘连连的时候，更会感到可怕。在恐慌中，你不断将当前价格与峰值价格（或崩盘前的价格）进行比较。假设思维可以活生生地吞噬你：“如果我在顶部卖出……”“要是我三天前卖了就好了……”“要是我当时能出去就好了……”“我要是相信自己的直觉就好了。”

但你可以使用像雅虎财经这样的网站去回顾股票自你买入以来的表现。看看你在买入价的基础上赚了多少，而不是盯着你在峰值的基础上损失了多少。这样一来，你就不会自怨自艾，以免因为没有在峰值卖出而感觉自己像个傻瓜。毕竟，如果你一开始没有买过这只股票，那么你连下跌后的这点收益都不会有。所以，除了关注股票在下跌之前涨了多少之外，更要关注即使在下跌之后仍然领先于大盘多少，这样就会帮你减轻一些懊悔感。

哈佛大学经济学家理查德·泽克豪泽经历了这一教训。1996年，他投资的一家新兴科技公司被美国在线收购之后，他得到了美国在线的大量股份，价格非常低，每股实际成本不到2美分。美国在线的股价在2000年初达到了每股95美元左右的峰值，但泽克豪泽并没有高位抛售。美国在线的股价一路跌至16美元，多年来一直停滞不前（现在是时代华纳的一部分）。泽克豪泽知道，他本可以通过在峰值套现发一大笔财。但他没有因为没有高位卖出而自责，反而为自己的投资行为沾沾自喜。他自嘲地说：“如果你的股票从2美分涨到近100美元，然后又回到16美元，你应该参考2美分，而不是100美元。”他的结论是“能够控制自己参考框架的投资者是幸福的”。

➢有的事情不知道，就不会受伤。[50]哥伦比亚大学心理学家埃尔克·韦伯表示：“如果你拥有一个真正多元化的投资组合，那么根据定义，肯定一些投资会表现良好，而另一些则表现糟糕。如果你认为风险是在某一特定时期内经历某种损失的可能性，那么一个多样化的投资组合可能比单一的集中投资风险更大。但风险不应该是这个意思，如果你的目标不是寻找失落感，你就不必过于在意它们。”

要让自己对亏损之痛变得麻木起来，不妨选择一个不让你孤立看待每一项投资的投资组合。许多401（k）计划现在都提供“生命周期型基金”或“目标型基金”，这些基金包含多种资产，包括美国和外国的股票、债券。因为它将所有股票、基金的回报率整合为一个整体性的数字向你报告盈利率，所以生命周期基金可以让你不必因为一次只关注一个损失而频繁懊悔。以2006年5月为例，在这个月里，全球股市都在经历一场噩梦，投资者的基金也积累了惊人的损失。

• 先锋全股票市场指数基金下跌3.2%。

• 先锋欧洲股票指数基金下跌2.4%。

• 先锋全债券市场指数基金下跌0.1%。

• 先锋太平洋股票指数基金下跌5.3%。

• 先锋新兴市场股票指数基金下跌10.7%。

如果你的某只基金在一个月内下跌了10.7%，你真的很难不感到懊悔。“先锋目标型退休基金2035”（Vanguard Target Retirement 2035）这款基金同时投资了上述5只基金，属于一种生命周期型基金，在2006年5月只损失了2.8%。你不必孤立地去看待这5只基金。所以，目标型基金让你的损失看起来更容易承受，也让你不那么懊悔。比如，其中的新兴市场基金像一块石头落地一样迅速下跌，但你能感觉到的只是整个投资组合的损失，损失幅度要小得多。任何接种过疫苗的人都知道，某种东西的伤害程度往往取决于你观察的密切程度。

➢保持你的平衡。[51]如果一个人在1984年初将1万美元投资于一只典型的美国股票或基金，之后一直持有，那么到2003年底，收益将达到50308美元。但普通投资者并不会让自己的资金不受干扰，相反，还不断地折腾，在市场热的时候增持，在市场冷的时候卖出。结果，普通投资者的收益只有46578美元，几乎比他在一直持有的情况下少赚10%。法国哲学家布莱斯·帕斯卡在他的著作中一语中的：“人类所有的不幸都来自一件事，即不知道如何在房间里保持安静。”

避免追逐热门股却最终以亏损告终的方法被称为“再平衡”。首先，你要决定把多大比例的本金分配给每项投资，即把你的鸡蛋按精确的比例放在篮子里。假设你最初的目标分配如下：

• 全美股票市场指数基金占比50%；

• 国际股票指数基金占比25%；

• 新兴市场股票指数基金占比5%；

• 全美债券指数基金占比20%。

现在，我们假设明年美国和国际股票跌去1/5，新兴市场股市下跌1/4，债券保持稳定。这样一来，美股就占了大约48%，国际股占了大约24%，新兴市场股占了大约4%，债券占了大约24%。

要将这些数字“再平衡”到最初的比例，你必须卖出债券，买入股票。在401（k）计划或个人退休账户这样的退休金储蓄账户中，你可以在不引发额外缴税的情况下进行再平衡。强制自己每年两次回头审视一下每项投资占比的变动情况，可以选择两个容易记住的日期（比如生日和假期），两个日期大概间隔6个月，或者选在每半年一次的牙齿检查日。（使用日历软件或www.backpackit.com这样的网站给自己发送提醒，并让身边的人检查你是否遵守了。）从长期来看，“再平衡”几乎肯定会提高你的回报，降低你的风险。你的投资同步涨跌的可能性就会变小，你从再平衡中获得的好处就会变大。

这样一来，你大脑中负责情绪调节的反射系统就不会扯着嗓子吼你去追逐那些上涨盈利的“胜利股”或者死死抱着下跌亏损的“失败股”不放，而是深思熟虑之后强迫你卖掉上涨幅度最大的部分，买进下跌幅度最大的部分。心理学家托马斯·基洛维奇表示：“你除了投资于特定的证券之外，更要坚持一种较为抽象的理念，即低买高卖。”这种理念应该能消除你的一些情绪。

大多数人做不到“再平衡”，因为他们害怕围绕着买卖而产生的懊悔。遗憾的是，他们没有意识到可以让这个过程“自动化”。对1000名投资者进行的一项调查发现，61%的人宁愿对配偶或伴侣承认自己的错误，也不愿卖出一只盈利股。然而，这些投资者中只有34%的人表示，他们会定期或特意安排时间对自己的投资组合进行“再平衡”，其中一半人承认至少每月检查一次自己的账户价值。

就像有人拒绝用一张彩票换另一张彩票一样，投资者担心，如果他们做出改变，投资组合就会表现不佳。他们忽视了，如果不做出改变，也会给自己带来厄运。所谓“再平衡”的本质，就是在长时间内将更多的钱投入价格下跌的投资中，并削减那些价格上涨的投资，相当于把自己锁定在低买高卖的状态中。如果你保持现状，你就会错过提高回报的机会。先锋基金公司的证券分析师约翰·阿梅里克斯（John Ameriks）表示：“人们被迫在某一时刻做出决定，总比让惰性完全占据主导地位要好。”

“再平衡”过程自动化的美妙之处在于，你不必一次又一次地做决定；相反，越来越多的401（k）计划的提供者允许你设定对每只基金的投入比例。你可以要求基金公司在一年的时间里至少帮你实现一次“再平衡”，最多四次，这样一来，基金公司就会自动适当卖出盈利投资和增补下跌投资，以达到“再平衡”的目标。你再也不用劳心费力地思考这个问题，你大部分的潜在遗憾也就不复存在了。这是最好的“投资导航仪”。如果你的证券公司提供自动“再平衡”服务，那就注册一下吧。如果没有，就主动提出这项要求。除此之外，既能提高投资回报，又能让你保持内心平静的方法少之又少。

[1] “Autumn Song” (1936), in W. H. Auden: Collected Poems (New York: Random House, 1976), p. 118.

[2] JZ telephone interviews with Robertson, Feb. 15 and 17, 2005.

[3] Colin Camerer,“Individual Decision Making,” in John H. Kagel and Alvin E. Roth,The Handbook of Experimental Economics (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1995), pp. 587–703; Jack L. Knetsch and J. A. Sinden,“Willingness to Pay and Compensation Demanded,” QJE, vol. 99, no. 3 (Aug. 1984), pp. 507–21; John K. Horowitz and Kenneth E. McConnell,“A Review of WTA/WTP Studies,” Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, vol. 44 (2002), pp. 426–47; George Loewenstein and Daniel Adler,“A Bias in the Prediction of Tastes,” Economic Journal, vol. 105, no. 431 (July 1995), pp. 929–37; Daniel Kahneman et al.,“Experimental Tests of the Endowment Effect and the Coase Theorem,” JPE, vol. 98,no. 6 (1990), pp. 1325–47; Ziv Carmon and Dan Ariely,“Focusing on the Foregone,”JCR, vol. 27 (Dec. 2000), pp. 360–70; Ying Zhang and Ayelet Fischbach,“The Role of Anticipated Emotions in the Endowment Effect,” Journal of Consumer Psychology,vol. 15, no. 4 (2005), pp. 316–24; Eric J. Johnson et al.,“Aspects of Endowment,”Columbia University working paper (Oct. 2004); Daniel Kahneman et al.,“The Endowment Effect, Loss Aversion, and Status Quo Bias,” in Richard H. Thaler, The Winner’s Curse (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1992), pp. 63–78. For a technical criticism of the endowment effect, see Charles R. Plott and Kathryn Zeiler,“The Willingness to Pay–Willingness to Accept Gap, the ‘Endowment’ Effect,Subject Misconceptions, and Experimental Procedures for Eliciting Valuations,” AER,vol. 95, no. 3 (June 2005), pp. 530–45.

[4] Brigitte C. Madrian and Dennis F. Shea,“The Power of Suggestion” (May 2000),www.nber.org/papers/w7682; Jeffrey R. Brown et al.,“410(k) Matching Contributions in Company Stock” (April 2004), www.nber.org/papers/w10419; Henrik Cronqvist and Richard H. Thaler,“Design Choices in Privatized Social-Security Systems,”AER, vol. 94, no. 2 (2004), pp. 424–28; Ted Martin Hedesstrom et al.,“Identifying Heuristic Choice Rules in the Swedish Premium Pension Scheme,” JBF, vol. 5, no. 1(2004), pp. 32–42.

[5] Maya Bar Hillel and Efrat Neter,“Why Are People Reluctant to Exchange Lottery Tickets?,” JPSP, vol. 70, no. 1 (1996), pp. 17–27.

[6] Olivia S. Mitchell et al.,“The Inattentive Participant” (April 2006), http://ssrn.com/ abstract=881854; William Samuelson and Richard Zeckhauser,“Status Quo Bias in Decision Making,” JRU, vol. 1, no. 1 (1988), pp. 7–59; John Ameriks and Stephen P.Zeldes,“How Do Household Portfolio Shares Vary with Age?” (Sept. 2004), www2.gsb.columbia.edu/faculty/szeldes/Research/; JZ e-mail interview with John Ameriks,June 20, 2006.

[7] Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky,“Prospect Theory,” Econometrica, vol. 47, no.2 (March 1979), pp. 263–92; David Romer,“Do Firms Maximize?” JPE, vol. 114, no.2 (April 2006), pp. 340–65; Cass Sunstein and Richard H. Thaler,“Market Efficiency and Rationality,” Michigan Law Review, vol. 102, no. 6 (May 2004), pp. 1390–1403;M. Keith Chen et al.,“How Basic Are Behavioral Biases?” JPE, vol. 114, no. 3 (June 2006), pp. 517–37; www.som.yale.edu/faculty/keith.chen.

[8] This example (adjusted for inflation) is taken from Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky,“The Psychology of Preferences,” SA, vol. 246 (1982), pp. 160–73, and Daniel Kahneman and Dale T. Miller,“Norm Theory,” in HAB, pp. 348–366.

[9] JZ telephone interview with Thomas Gilovich, July 17, 2006; Daniel Kahneman,remarks at Oxford Programme on Investment Decision-Making, Saïd School of Business, Oxford, U.K. Oct. 22, 2004.

[10] Hersh Shefrin and Meir Statman,“The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long,” JF, vol. 40, no. 3 (July 1985), pp. 777–90; Erik R. Sirri and Peter Tufano,“Costly Search and Mutual Fund Flows,” JF, vol. 53, no. 5 (Oct. 1998),pp. 1589–1622; David W. Harless and Steven P. Peterson,“Investor Behavior and the Persistence of Poorly-Performing Mutual Funds,” JEBO, vol. 37 (1998), pp. 257–76;William N. Goetzmann and Nadav Peles,“Cognitive Dissonance and Mutual Fund Investors,” Journal of Financial Research, vol. 20, no. 2 (Summer 1997), pp. 145–58;Martin Weber and Colin F. Camerer,“The Disposition Effect in Securities Trading,”JEBO, vol. 33 (1998), pp. 167–84; Stephen P. Ferris et al.,“Predicting Contemporary Volume with Historic Volume at Differential Price Levels,” JF, vol. 43, no. 3 (July 1998), pp. 677–97; Mark Grinblatt and Matti Keloharju,“What Makes Investors Trade?” JF, vol. 56, no. 2 (April 2001), pp. 589–615; Terrance Odean,“Are Investors Reluctant to Realize Their Losses?” JF, vol. 53, no. 5 (Oct. 1998), pp. 1775–97;Ravi Dhar and Ning Zhu,“Up Close and Personal” (Aug. 2002), http://ssrn.com/abstract=302245; Li Jin and Anna Scherbina,“Inheriting Losers” (Feb. 2006), http://ssrn.com/abstract=895765; Gjergji Cici,“The Relation of the Disposition Effect to Mutual Fund Trades and Performance” (July 2005), http://ssrn.com/abstract=645841; Zur Shapira and Itzhak Venezia,“Patterns of Behavior of Professionally Managed and Independent Investors,” Journal of Banking & Finance, vol. 25, no. 8 (Aug.2001), pp. 1573–87; Karl E. Case and Robert J. Shiller,“The Behavior of Home Buyers in Boom and Post-Boom Markets” (Oct. 1988), www.nber.org/papers/w2748;David Genesove and Christopher Mayer,“Loss Aversion and Seller Behavior,” QJE,vol. 116, no. 4 (Nov. 2001), pp. 1233–60.

[11] William Shakespeare, Hamlet, 3.1.88–89; Justin Kruger et al.,“Counterfactual Thinking and the First Instinct Fallacy,” JPSP, vol. 88, no. 5 (2005), pp. 725–35; Dale T. Miller and Brian R. Taylor,“Counterfactual Thought, Regret, and Superstition,”in Neal J. Roese and James M. Olson, eds., What Might Have Been (Mahwah, N.J.:Erlbaum, 1995), pp. 305–32; Orit Tykocinski et al.,“Inaction Inertia in the Stock Market,” Journal of Applied Social Psychology, vol. 34, no. 6 (2004), pp. 1166–75.

[12] Carrie M. Heilman et al.,“Pleasant Surprises,” Journal of Marketing Research, vol.39, no. 2 (May 2002), pp. 242–52; Hal R. Arkes et al.,“The Psychology of Windfall Gains,” OBHDP, vol. 59 (1994), pp. 331–47; Pamela W. Henderson and Robert A.Peterson,“Mental Accounting and Categorization,” OBHDP, vol. 51 (1992), pp. 92–117; Nicholas Epley and Ayelet Gneezy,“The Framing of Financial Windfalls and Implications for Public Policy,” Journal of Socio-Economics, vol. 36, no. 1 (2007),pp. 36–47.

[13] Franklin mentions his asbestos purse in Chapter Five of his autobiography. It is described in James E. Alleman and Brooke T. Mossman,“Asbestos Revisited,”SA, July 1997, pp.70–75, and can be viewed at http://piclib.nhm.ac.uk/piclib/www/image.php?img=46575. On the sadness of lottery winners, see Philip Brickman et al.,“Lottery Winners and Accident Victims,” JPSP, vol. 36, no. 8 (1978), pp. 917–27.

[14] I was unable to reach Mr. X directly, so this story is based on interviews with two of his former colleagues, who requested anonymity.

[15] A. Charles Catania and Terje Sagvolden,“Preference for Free Choice over Forced Choice in Pigeons,” JEAB, vol.34, no.1 (1980), pp.77–86; A. Charles Catania,“Freedom and Knowledge,” JEAB, vol. 24, no. 1 (1975), pp. 89–106.

[16] Sheena S. Iyengar and Mark R. Lepper,“When Choice Is Demotiva-ting,” JPSP,vol. 79, no. 6 (2000), pp. 995–1006; Barry Schwartz et al.,“Maximizing versus Satisficing,” JPSP, vol. 83, no. 5 (2002), pp. 1178–97; Sheena Sethi Iyengar et al.,“How Much Choice Is Too Much?” in Olivia S. Mitchell and Stephen P. Utkus,Pension Design and Structure (Oxford, U.K.: Oxford University Press, 2004), pp. 83–95; Olivia S. Mitchell et al.,“Turning Workers into Savers?” (Oct. 2005), www.nber.org/papers/w11726; Henrik Cronqvist and Richard H. Thaler,“Design Choices in Privatized Social-Security Systems,” AER, vol. 94, no. 2 (2004), pp. 424–28;Jiwoong Sin and Dan Ariely,“Keeping Doors Open,” MS, vol. 50, no. 5 (May 2004),pp. 575–86.

[17] This example is adapted from Richard Thaler,“Toward a Positive Theory of Consumer Choice,” JEBO, vol. 1 (1980), pp. 39–60.

[18] Marcel Zeelenberg and Rik Pieters,“Consequences of Regret Aversion in Real Life,”OBHDP, vol. 93 (2004), pp. 155–68.

[19] NBC television broadcast of the women’s snowboardcross final, Feb. 17, 2006;Victoria Husted Medvec et al.,“When Less Is More,” JPSP, vol. 69, no. 4 (1995), pp.603–10.

[20] Karl Halvor Teigen,“When the Unreal Is More Likely than the Real,” Thinking and Reasoning, vol. 4, no. 2 (1998), pp. 147–77; Jonathan Parke and Mark Griffiths,“Gambling Addiction and the Evolution of the ‘Near Miss,’” Addiction Research and Theory, vol. 12, no. 5 (2004), pp. 407–11; R. L. Reid,“The Psychology of the Near Miss,” Journal of Gambling Behavior, vol. 2, no. 1 (1986), pp. 32–39; Daniel Kahneman and Carol Varey,“Propensities and Counterfactuals,” JPSP, vol. 59, no. 6(1990), pp. 1101–10; Michael J. A. Wohl and Michael E. Enzle,“The Effects of Near Wins and Near Losses on Self-Perceived Personal Luck and Subsequent Gambling Behavior,” JESP, vol. 39 (2003), pp. 184–91.

[21] Keith D. Markman and Philip E. Tetlock,“Accountability and Close-Call Counterfactuals,” PSPB, vol. 26, no. 10 (Oct. 2000), pp. 1213–24; Brad M. Barber et al.,“Once Burned, Twice Shy” (Sept. 2004), http://ssrn.com/abstract=611267; JZ telephone interview with Terrance Odean, July 12, 2005.

[22] John Allman et al.,“Two Phylogenetic Specializations in the Human Brain,” The Neuroscientist, vol. 8, no. 4 (2002), pp. 335–46; Edmund T. Rolls,“The Orbitofrontal Cortex and Reward,” CC, vol. 10 (March 2000), pp. 284–94; D. Ongur and J. L.Price,“The Organization of Networks Within the Orbital and Medial Prefrontal Cortex of Rats, Monkeys and Humans,” CC, vol. 10 (March 2000), pp. 206–19;Antoine Bechara et al.,“Emotion, Decision Making and the Orbitofrontal Cortex,”CC, vol. 10 (March 2000), pp. 295–307; Jacqueline N. Wood and Jordan Grafman,“Human Prefrontal Cortex,” NRN, vol. 4 (Feb. 2003), pp. 139–47; Daeyeol Lee,“Best to Go with What You Know?” Nature, vol. 441 (June 15, 2006), pp. 822–23; Nathaniel D. Daw et al.,“Cortical Substrates for Exploratory Decisions in Humans,”Nature, vol. 441 (June 15, 2006), pp. 876–79. The orbitofrontal cortex lies on the underside of the VMPFC.

[23] Katerina Semendeferi et al.,“Prefrontal Cortex in Humans and Apes,” American Journal of Physical Anthropology, vol. 114 (2001), pp. 224–41; Katerina Semendeferi et al.,“Humans and Great Apes Share a Large Frontal Cortex,” NNS,vol. 5, no. 3 (March 2002), pp. 272–76; Morten L. Kringelbach and Edmund T. Rolls,“The Functional Neuroanatomy of the Human Orbitofrontal Cortex,” Progress in Neurobiology, vol. 72 (2004), pp. 341–72; Narender Ramnani and Adrian M. Owen,“Anterior Prefrontal Cortex,” NRN, vol. 5 (March 2004), pp. 184–94.

[24] Vinod Goel et al.,“A Study of the Performance of Patients with Frontal Lobe Lesions in a Financial Planning Task,” Brain, vol. 120 (1997), pp. 1805–22; JZ interview with Jordan Grafman, March 6, 2002; E. T. Rolls et al.,“Emotion-Related Learning in Patients with Social and Emotional Changes Associated with Frontal Lobe Damage,”Journal of Neurology, Neurosurgery, and Psychiatry, vol. 57 (1994), pp. 1518–24;Antoine Bechara,“Disturbances of Emotion Regulation after Focal Brain Lesions,”International Review of Neurobiology, vol. 62 (2004), pp. 159–93; Antoine Bechara et al.,“Deciding Advantageously Before Knowing the Advantageous Strategy,”Science, vol. 275 (Feb. 28, 1997), pp. 1293–95; Antonio Damasio’s Descartes’ Error(New York: Avon, 1995) describes“Elliot,” who became incapable of long-term planning after a tumor damaged his VMPFC, and the 19th-century railroad worker Phineas Gage, who became impetuous and impulsive after an iron rod shot through his head in a blasting accident.

[25] Jean-Claude Dreher et al.,“Neural Coding of Distinct Statistical Properties of Reward Information in Humans,” CC, vol. 16, no. 4 (2006), pp. 561–73; Hackjin Kim et al.,“Is Avoiding an Aversive Outcome Rewarding?” PloS Biology, vol. 4, no.8 (Aug. 2006); JZ e-mail interview with John O’Doherty, July 7, 2006.

[26] Nathalie Camille et al.,“The Involvement of the Orbitofrontal Cortex in the Experience of Regret,” Science, vol. 304 (May 21, 2004), pp. 1167–70; David M.Eagleman,“Comment on ‘The Involvement of the Orbitofrontal Cortex in the Experience of Regret’” and Giorgio Coricelli et al.,“Response to Comment on ‘The Involvement of the Orbitofrontal Cortex in the Experience of Regret,’” Science,vol. 308 (May 27, 2005), pp. 1260b-c; Giorgio Coricelli et al.,“Regret and Its Avoidance,” NNS, vol. 8, no. 9 (Sept. 2005), pp. 1255–62.

[27] Lesley K. Fellows,“Deciding How to Decide,” Brain, vol. 129, no. 4 (2006), pp.944–52.

[28] e-mail to JZ from sender who requested anonymity, June 13, 2006; JZ,“Murphy Was an Investor,” MM, July 2002, pp. 61–62; JZ interview with Matthews, March 12, 2002; Angus Maddison, The World Economy (Paris: OECD, 2001), p. 262;William J. Bernstein and Robert D. Arnott,“Earnings Growth: The 2% Dilution,”FAJ (Sept.–Oct. 2003), pp. 47–55; William J. Bernstein, The Birth of Plenty (New York: McGraw-Hill, 2004), pp. 17–27; Warren Buffett, chairman’s letter, Berkshire Hathaway annual report, 1997, www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/1997.html; Peter L. Bernstein, Against the Gods (New York: John Wiley, 1996), pp. 167–86.

[29] Donald A. Redelmeier and Robert J. Tibshirani,“Why Cars in the Next Lane Seem to Go Faster,” Nature, vol. 401 (Sept. 2, 1999), pp. 35–36; Donald A. Redelmeier and Robert J. Tibshirani,“Are Those Other Drivers Really Going Faster?” Chance,vol. 13, no. 3 (2000), pp. 8–14; Dale T. Miller and Brian R. Taylor,“Counterfactual Thought, Regret, and Superstition,” in Neal J. Roese and James M. Olson, eds., What Might Have Been (Mahwah, N.J.: Erlbaum, 1995), pp. 305–32.

[30] John M. Allman et al.,“Intuition and Autism,” TICS, vol. 9, no. 8 (Aug. 2005), pp.367–73; R. A. Borman et al.,“5-HT2B Receptors Play a Key Role in Mediating the Excitatory Effects of 5-HT in Human Colon in Vitro,” British Journal of Pharmacology, vol. 135 (2002), pp. 1144–51; Eduardo P. M. Vianna et al.,“Increased Feelings with Increased Body Signals,” Social, Cognitive, and Affective Neuroscience, vol. 1, no. 1 (2006), pp. 37–48. The special molecule is a serotonin 2b receptor.

[31] Andrew J. Calder et al.,“Neuropsychology of Fear and Loathing,” NRN, vol. 2 (May 2001), pp. 352–63; K. Luan Phan et al.,“Functional Neuroanatomy of Emotion,”Neuro Image, vol. 16 (2002), pp. 331–48; A.D. Craig,“How Do You Feel?,” NRN,vol. 3 (Aug. 2002), pp. 655–66; Antoine Bechara and Nasir Naqvi,“Listening to Your Heart,” NNS, vol. 7, no. 2 (Feb. 2004), pp. 102–3; Hugo D. Critchley et al.,“Neural Systems Supporting Interoceptive Awareness,” NNS, vol. 7, no. 2 (Feb. 2004), pp.189–95.

[32] S. Dupont et al.,“Functional Anatomy of the Insula,” Surgical and Radiologic Anatomy, vol. 25 (2003), pp. 113–19; Paul W. Glimcher and Brian Lau,“Rethinking the Thalamus,” NNS, vol. 8, no. 8 (Aug. 2005), pp. 983–84; Takafumi Minamimoto et al.,“Complementary Process to Response Bias in the Centromedian Nucleus of the Thalamus,” Science, vol. 308 (June 17, 2005), pp. 1798–1801.

[33] M. L. Phillips et al.,“A Specific Neural Substrate for Perceiving Facial Expressions of Disgust,” Nature, vol. 389 (Oct. 2, 1987), pp. 495–98; Andrew J. Calder et al.,“Neuropsychology of Fear and Loathing,” NRN, vol. 2 (May 2001), pp. 352–63;Andrew J. Calder et al.,“Impaired Recognition and Experience of Disgust Following Brain Injury,” NNS, vol. 3, no. 11 (Nov. 2000), pp. 1077–78; Bruno Wicker et al.,“Both of Us Disgusted in My Insula,” Neuron, vol. 40 (Oct. 30, 2003), pp. 655–64;Pierre Krolak-Salmon et al.,“An Attention Modulated Response to Disgust in Human Ventral Anterior Insula,” Annals of Neurology, vol. 53, no. 4 (April 2003), pp.446–53; www.open2.net/humanmind/article_faces_2.htm.

[34] Martin P. Paulus et al.,“Increased Activation in the Right Insula during Risk-Taking Decision Making Is Related to Harm Avoidance and Neuroticism,” Neuro Image, vol.19 (2003), pp. 1439–48.

[35] Brian Knutson et al.,“Neural Predictors of Purchases,” Neuron, vol. 53, no. 1(January 4, 2007), pp. 1–10.

[36] JZ participated in Huettel’s experiment at the Brain Imaging and Analysis Center,Duke University, June 22, 2004. (There was also a large, but less intense, area of activation in my dorsolateral prefrontal cortex.)

[37] Baba Shiv et al.,“Investment Behavior and the Negative Side of Emotion,” PS, vol.16, no. 6 (2005), pp. 435–39; Tetsuo Koyama et al.,“The Subjective Experience of Pain,” PNAS, vol. 102, no. 36 (Sept. 6, 2005), pp. 12950–55; George Loewenstein,“The Pleasures and Pains of Information,” Science, vol. 312 (May 5, 2006), pp.704–6; Gregory S. Berns,“Neurobiological Substrates of Dread,” Science, vol. 312(May 5, 2006), pp. 754–58.

[38] Camelia M. Kuhnen and Brian Knutson,“The Neural Basis of Financial Risk Taking,” Neuron, vol. 47 (Sept. 1, 2005), pp. 763–70; JZ e-mail interview with Knutson, June 19, 2006; Jennifer S. Lerner et al.,“Heart Strings and Purse Strings,”PS, vol. 15, no. 5 (2004), pp. 337–41; JZ e-mail interview with Lerner, June 20,2006.

[39] JZ e-mail interviews with Wayne Wagner, former chairman, Plexus Group, now an independent consultant to ITG Solutions Network, April 7 and 11, 2006; Ian Domowitz and Benn Steil,“Automation, Trading Costs, and the Structure of the Securities Trading Industry,” Brookings-Wharton Papers on Financial Services(Washington, D. C.: Brookings Institution, 1999), pp. 33–81; Donald B. Keim and Ananth Madhavan,“The Cost of Institutional Equity Trades,” FAJ (July/Aug. 1998),pp. 50–69.

[40] Nina Hattiangadi,“Failing to Act,” International Journal of Aging and Human Development, vol. 40, no. 3 (1995), pp. 175–85; Thomas Gilovich and Victoria Husted Medvec,“The Temporal Pattern to the Experience of Regret,” JPSP, vol. 67,no. 3 (1994), pp. 357–65, and“The Experience of Regret,” PR, vol. 102, no. 2 (1995),pp. 379–95; Thomas Gilovich et al.,“Varieties of Regret,” PR, vol. 105, no. 3 (1998),pp. 602–5; JZ telephone interview with Thomas Gilovich, July 17, 2006.

[41] Ilana Ritov,“The Effect of Time on Pleasure with Chosen Outcomes,” JBDM, vol.19 (2006), pp. 177–90; Neal J. Roese and Amy Summerville,“What We Regret Most . . . and Why,” PSPB, vol. 31, no. 9 (Sept. 2005), pp. 1273–85; Neal J. Roese,“Twisted Pair,” BHJDM, pp. 258–73; Daniel Kahneman,“Varieties of Counterfactual Thinking,” in Neal J. Roese and James M. Olson, eds., What Might Have Been(Mahwah, N.J.: Erlbaum, 1995), pp. 375–96; Neal Roese, If Only (New York:Broadway, 2005).

[42] Suzanne O’Curry Fogel and Thomas Berry,“The Disposition Effect and Individual Investor Decisions,” JBF, vol. 7, no. 2 (2006), pp. 107–16.

[43] Daniel T. Gilbert et al.,“Looking Forward to Looking Backward,” PS, vol. 15, no. 5(2004), pp. 346–50; JZ telephone interview with Thomas Gilovich, July 17, 2006.

[44] JZ telephone interview with Dan Robertson, Feb. 17, 2005; fax to JZ from Robertson and Steve Schullo, Feb. 21, 2005.

[45] Terry Connolly and Marcel Zeelenberg,“Regret in Decision Making,” CDPS, vol.11, no. 6 (Dec. 2002), pp. 212–16; JZ e-mail interview with Thomas Gilovich, July 20, 2006.

[46] JZ telephone interview with Terrance Odean, July 12, 2005; Suzanne O’Curry Fogel and Thomas Berry,“The Disposition Effect and Individual Investor Decisions,”JBF, vol. 7, no. 2 (2006), pp. 107–16;“Applying Behavioral Finance to Value Investing,” presentation by Whitney Tilson (Nov. 2005), www.tilsonfunds.com/TilsonBehavioralFinance.pdf; Gretchen B. Chapman,“Similarity and Reluctance to Trade,” JBDM, vol. 11 (1998), pp. 47–58.

[47] JZ,“How Losing Less Can Cost You More,” MM, June 2005, p. 70.

[48] JZ telephone interview with Michael Hadley, assistant counsel for pension regulation,Investment Company Institute, July 18, 2006.

[49] Richard Zeckhauser, remarks at Oxford Programme on Investment Decision-Making, Saïd School of Business, Oxford, U.K. Oct. 22, 2004; JZ e-mail interview with Zeckhauser, July 20, 2006; Neal Roese, If Only (New York: Broadway, 2005), pp.201–2.

[50] JZ e-mail interview with Elke Weber, July 20, 2006; Vanguard data kindly provided by John Woerth, Vanguard public relations, July 24, 2006.

[51] Oded Braverman et al.,“The (Bad?) Timing of Mutual Fund Investors,” http://ssrn.com/abstract=795146; JZ e-mail interview with Shmuel Kandel and Avi Wohl, July 26, 2006; Pascal, Pensées, no. 139; Seth J. Masters,“Rebalancing,”JPM (Spring 2003), pp. 52–57; Yesim Tokat,“Portfolio Rebalancing in Theory and Practice,” Vanguard Investment Counseling & Research, report no. 31(2006); Robert D. Arnott and Robert M. Lovell Jr.,“Rebalancing,” First Quadrant Corp. Monograph No. 3 (1992); Mark Riepe and Bill Swerbenski,“Rebalancing for Tax-Deferred Accounts,” JFP (April 2006), pp. 40–44;Efficient Frontier, Sept. 1996, Jan. 1997, July 1997, www.efficientfrontier.com; JZ e-mails with William Bernstein, Jan. 23, 2004, and July 21, 2006; JZ telephone interview with Thomas Gilovich, July 17, 2006; http://therightmix.alliancebernstein.com/CmsObjectTRM/PDF/PressRelease_051102_INV.pdf;detailed survey results provided by Tiller LLC; JZ e-mail interview with John Ameriks, June 20, 2006.