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Ⅱ粮食金融化与中非农业合作
薛翠 等
金融资本主导全球化已经造成的“粮食金融化”（亦称“粮食美元化”），是导致全球粮食安全形势严峻、造成粮食进口依存度高的低收入国家发生动乱的最重要因素。本研究以国际金融资本全球化为研究视角，分析21世纪的粮食安全问题，尤其关注中国与非洲在粮食金融化下共同合作，应付粮食与金融两重风险。
目前，全球小麦、玉米、稻谷和大豆市场的供求处于基本平衡状态，没有明显的供需缺口；而在价格方面，国际粮价近年来却剧烈波动，明显脱离了供求基本面。这表明，国际粮食市场的供求关系并不是构成粮价剧烈波动的最主要因素。同时，国际粮食价格的剧烈波动与美国数次量化宽松的货币政策存在紧密联系。
在华尔街金融海啸爆发、美国政府采取“超级量化宽松”政策向世界转嫁通货膨胀以来，美元的大量增发，造成越来越多的过剩流动性冲击粮食市场，导致粮食市场价格出现剧烈波动；粮食市场同时成为过剩金融流动性的“垃圾消纳场”，粮价的一次大起大落就能替西方主导国家制造的过剩流动性做消化：这两方面都显示出粮食市场的运行脱离物理层面，而被人为创造出“粮食的金融属性”。
在美元过量增发条件下，大量过剩流动性源源不断地强化着直接冲击粮食期货市场的投机性金融资本，造成粮食的金融属性与传统意义的产销供求等价格生成条件的脱节愈益凸显，进而形成金融投机资本是为粮食期货市场价格异常变化的主要因素，也为导致世界范围的粮食危机的主要因素。国际市场粮食金融化对国际社会造成严重影响，包括国际粮食价格剧烈波动和高价运行，“单一经济”国家陷入饥荒以及北非、中东街头动乱和政权危机。
本研究旨在面对这种新的形势，即全球化竞争下的粮食金融化是导致全球粮食安全的最重要因素，在粮食金融化的框架下探讨如何更好地保障中国与非洲的粮食安全。
GrainFinancialization and China-Africa Agricultural Cooperation
SIT Tsui et al.
The globalization led by financial capital has already resulted in“grainfinancial-ization”（or grain Dollarization），which is the most important factor giving rise to the grave situation in global food security, as well as turmoil in low-income countries that rely heavily on grain imports. This research studies and analyzes food security issues in the 21st century in the context of international financial globaliza-tion.In particular, it pays special attention to China-Africa cooperation in the con-text of grain financialization in order to deal with the dual risks existing in grain and financial markets.
At present, the global supply and demand of wheat, maize, rice and soybeans are essentially in a state of equilibrium, without obvious gap between two sides. It indicates that the supply-demand relationship in international grain market is not the main factor that causes severe fluctuations in grain prices.Rather, there is a close correlation between the severe fluctuations in international grain price and the several rounds of quantitative easing in the United State's monetary strategy.
Ever since the financial crisis erupted in the Wall Street in 2007，the US gov-ernment adopted a“super quantitative easing”strategy to transfer the costs of the ；crisis and triggered inflation globally. The enormous amount of US dollars thus issued has produced increasing surplus liquidity which then gushed in the grain market, leading to wild fluctuations in grain market prices.The grain market has become the“garbage dump”of excessive financial liquidity.Every major rise and fall functions to digest the surplus liquidity that has been produced by the dominant nations in the West.Both these two aspects show that operation of the grain market has gone beyond the normal realm and the“financial properties of grain”has been artificially created.
Under the condition of over-supply of US currency, the large quantity of surplus liquidity continues to strengthen speculative financial capital, which is im-pacting on the grain futures market, creating an increasingly obvious mismatch be-tween the financial properties of grain and the pricing conditions（production-sale, supply-demand etc.）in the traditional sense. Financial speculative capital has therefore become the main factor of the abnormal price fluctuations in grain futures market, and also the main reason in causing the food crisis around the world.Grain-financialization has serious impacts on international community, including fluctuations in grain market and persistent high price level.As a result，“mono-e-conomy”countries have fallen to starvation.We witness street riots in the Middle East and various other crises of sovereignty.
This research aims to confront the new situation—“grainfinancialization”under globalized competition becoming the main factor that threatens global food se-curity—to investigate how to better protect food security in Africa and China within the framework of grain financialization.